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Developmental Cost Theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming

Citation

Marshall, Dustin; Pettersen, Amanda; Bode, Michael; White, Craig (2020), Developmental Cost Theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.zw3r2284x

Abstract

Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here we develop, parameterise and test Developmental Cost Theory (DCT), a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimised (Topt). Our DCT-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across 7 phyla remarkably well (R2 ~ 0.83). DCT predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment, and DCT provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. DCT predicts tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.

Methods

The data are mainly collected from a previous synthesis in Pettersen et al (2019) Ecology Letters. 

Usage Notes

The data are in the following columns:

B: Species name

C: A temperature dependence of embryonic metabolic rate parameter

D, E, & F: Parameters for describing the temperature dependence of development

G: The calculated temperature that minimises the costs of development

H: Minimum reported environmental temperature

I: Maximum reported environmental temperature

J: Mid-temperature between the minimum and the maximum temperature 

K: Change in the costs of development for a 20% shift in temperature relative to the temperature range

L: Change in survival for a 20% shift in temperature relative to the temperature range

M: Curvature of the development costs relationship evaluated at the optimal temperature

Funding

Australian Research Council