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International COVID-19 mortality forecast visualization: covidcompare.io

Citation

Akre, Samir; Liu, Patrick; Friedman, Joseph; Bui, Alex (2021), International COVID-19 mortality forecast visualization: covidcompare.io, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.5068/D1V68X

Abstract

COVID-19 mortality forecasting models provide critical information about the trajectory of the pandemic, which is used by policymakers and public health officials to guide decision-making. However, thousands of published COVID-19 mortality forecasts now exist, many with their own unique methods, assumptions, format, and visualization. As a result, it is difficult to compare models and understand under which circumstances a model performs best. Here, we describe the construction and usability of covidcompare.io, a web tool built to compare numerous forecasts and offer insight into how each has performed over the course of the pandemic. From its launch in December 2020 to June 2021, we have seen 4,600 unique visitors from 85 countries. A study conducted with public health professionals showed high usability overall as formally assessed using a Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire (PSSUQ). We find that covidcompare.io is an impactful tool for the comparison of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.

Methods

During a recorded Zoom call, participants were asked to perform a series of tasks on covidcompare.io after which they were administered the PSSUQ via Qualtrics to assess website usability. The Zoom calls were no longer than one hour each.

Usage Notes

The PSSUQ is a 19-item validated questionnaire with likest-scale responses (1 to 7); answers of value 8 indicate that the question is "Not Applicable". For more information refer to:

Lewis JR. Psychometric Evaluation of the Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire: The PSSUQ. Proc Hum Factors Ergonomics Soc Annu Meet 1992;36:1259--1260. doi:10.1177/154193129203601617

Funding

National Institutes of Health, Award: T32 EB016640