Near-term modeled forest fire area and fuel aridity projections
Data files
Nov 05, 2021 version files 52.08 MB
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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ACCESS-CM2_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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ACCESS-ESM1-5_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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AWI-CM-1-1-MR_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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BCC-CSM2-MR_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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CanESM5_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_mod-fading.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_mod-static.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_static.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_strong-fading.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_strong-static.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_weak-fading.csv
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CanESM5-CanOE_r1i1p2f1_weak-static.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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CAS-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_static.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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CESM2_r3i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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cmip6_model_cwd.csv
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cmip6_model_eto.csv
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cmip6_model_vpd.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_mod-fading.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_mod-static.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_static.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_strong-fading.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_strong-static.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_weak-fading.csv
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CNRM-CM6-1_r1i1p1f2_weak-static.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_mod-fading.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_mod-static.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_static.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_strong-fading.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_strong-static.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_weak-fading.csv
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CNRM-ESM2-1_r2i1p1f2_weak-static.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-CC_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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EC-Earth3-Veg-LR_r2i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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FGOALS-f3-L_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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FGOALS-g3_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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GFDL-CM4_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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GFDL-ESM4_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_mod-fading.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_mod-static.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_static.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_strong-fading.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_strong-static.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_weak-fading.csv
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GISS-E2-1-G_r1i1p1f2_weak-static.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_mod-fading.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_mod-static.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_static.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_strong-fading.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_strong-static.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_weak-fading.csv
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HadGEM3-GC31-LL_r1i1p1f3_weak-static.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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INM-CM5-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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IPSL-CM6A-LR_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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KACE-1-0-G_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_mod-fading.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_mod-static.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_static.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_strong-fading.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_strong-static.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_weak-fading.csv
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MIROC-ES2L_r4i1p1f2_weak-static.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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MIROC6_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-HR_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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MPI-ESM1-2-LR_r3i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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MRI-ESM2-0_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_mod-fading.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_mod-static.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_static.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_strong-fading.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_strong-static.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_weak-fading.csv
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NorESM2-MM_r1i1p1f1_weak-static.csv
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observed_climate_fire.csv
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README.txt
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_mod-fading.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_mod-static.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_static.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_strong-fading.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_strong-static.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_weak-fading.csv
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UKESM1-0-LL_r1i1p1f2_weak-static.csv
Abstract
Escalating burned area in western US forests has heightened the need to refine near-term forest fire projections. One critical knowledge gap is how fire-fuel feedbacks may constrain such projections. We use both static climate-fire models and dynamic models that incorporate feedbacks to project future western US forest-fire area. Compared to 1991-2020, static models for 2021-2050 project a doubling in forest-fire area, increased year-to-year variability, and increased occurrence of years with forest-fire area exceeding the 2020 fire season. Dynamic models that incorporate fire-fuel feedbacks project more moderate increases, but still show a 46-90% increase in forest-fire area compared to 1991-2020. Our results emphasize the need to mitigate against the negative effects of more fire in the coming decades.