The following models and output are associated with “Corralling a black swan: Natural range of variation in a forest landscape driven by rare, extreme events” by Daniel C. Donato, Joshua Halofsky, and Matthew J. Reilly. Within the ‘Models’ folder are the 27 STSIM models run across the entire 2.7 million ha landscape, and the nine STSMs run at the 20,000 ha scale. The models span all beta distributions, snychronies, and rotations used in the analysis. All models were run using the STSim package in the SyncroSim software (version 2.0.33). Both the package and software are freely available to download from https://syncrosim.com. Within the 'Output_Landscape' folder is the raw csv output for each of the 27 landscape scenarios. 'Output_Twenty_Thousand_Hectares' contains the raw csv output from the nine 20,000 ha scale scenarios. Each scenario has a state output and a transition output containing annual values for each of our 50 simulations where each simulation was run for 10,000 years. State files were used to develop all structure-related summaries. Transition files were used to estimate all wildfire-related summaries.