Data from: Potential range shifts of the morphotypes within the Anastrepha fraterculus complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): Implications under climate change scenarios
Data files
Oct 01, 2026 version files 22.65 MB
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README.md
8.73 KB
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Supplementary_Figures.zip
21.80 MB
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Supplementary_Table1_references.csv
5.89 KB
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Supplementary_Table1.csv
39.50 KB
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Supplementary_Table2.csv
801.32 KB
Abstract
The South American fruit fly Anastrepha fraterculus is a cryptic species complex comprising at least eight morphotypes that threatens part of the fruit production across the Americas. In this study, we modeled the current and future potential distributions of the whole complex and each morphotype. Filtered occurrence data (n = 339) were analyzed against six previously selected non-collinear bioclimatic predictors. Ensemble models created with statistical and machine learning algorithms identified ~6 million km² of environmentally suitable area for the complex, mainly in Brazil and Argentina. Morphotype-level analyses revealed contrasting range extension and suitable areas: Brazilian-1 exhibited the broadest distribution and environmental breadth, whereas Brazilian-2 and Brazilian-3 are restricted to coastal regions. High-elevation morphotypes (Andean, Ecuadorian, Peruvian, Venezuelan) were strongly constrained by temperature, whereas the Mexican morphotype distribution was more related with precipitation and displayed a significant potential for expansion into Central and North America. Future projections indicated overall contractions (18–40%) of the areas presenting high-suitability for the presence of the species, along with southward range shifts and increased morphotype overlap in temperate regions; nevertheless, the remaining high-suitable area include the current zones of high production of fruits. These results provide a morphotype-explicit reference for anticipating invasion risk and support area-wide integrated pest management strategies under climate change.
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.2ngf1vj4c
Dataset description
This repository contains the supplementary data and figures supporting the manuscript:
Potential range shifts of the morphotypes within the Anastrepha fraterculus complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): implications under climate change scenarios
The dataset includes the curated occurrence records used for species distribution modeling, the projected areas of high climatic suitability under current and future climate scenarios, and the supplementary figures referenced in the manuscript.
Files and variables
Supplementary_Table1.csv
Curated occurrence dataset used for species distribution modeling. Each row corresponds to one occurrence record of Anastrepha fraterculus (sensu lato) or one of its morphotypes.
Columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
Latitude |
Latitude in decimal degrees (WGS84) |
Longitude |
Longitude in decimal degrees (WGS84) |
Morphotype |
Assigned morphotype within the A. fraterculus complex (when available). Values: Andean, Brazilian-1, Brazilian-2, Brazilian-3, Ecuadorian, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan. Empty when the record was assigned only to the complex. |
Source |
Short citation key of the original source of the occurrence record. Full references are provided in Supplementary_Table_1_references.csv. |
Supplementary_Table1_references.csv
Full bibliographic references for the sources listed in Supplementary_Table1.csv.
Supplementary_Table2.csv
Summary of areas with high climatic suitability (binary projection using the TSS = 0.7 threshold) under current and future climate scenarios for the A. fraterculus complex and each morphotype.
The data are provided in long (tidy) format. Each row corresponds to one entity (country or ecoregion) × one period × one scenario × one unit.
Columns:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
morphotype |
A. fraterculus complex or morphotype name. Values: Af_complex, Andean, Brazilian-1, Brazilian-2, Brazilian-3, Ecuadorian, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan. |
level |
Summarization level. Values: country or ecoregion. |
entity |
Country name or ecoregion name. |
period |
Temporal period of the projection. Values: current or future. |
scenario |
Climate scenario code (see Abbreviations below). Values: current, f1, f2, f3, f4. |
unit |
Unit of the reported value. Values: km2 (area with high climatic suitability) or percent (percent change relative to the current scenario). |
value |
Numeric value (area or percent). |
Notes:
- Area values are expressed in km².
- Percent values represent the change relative to the current scenario. Negative values indicate a loss of suitable area; positive values indicate a gain.
Supplementary_Figures.zip
Contains Supplementary Figures 1–12 referenced in the manuscript.
| Figure | Content |
|---|---|
| Figure S1 | Occurrence data cleaning workflow |
| Figure S2 | Environmental variable selection |
| Figures S3–S11 | Species distribution modeling outputs for the A. fraterculus complex and each morphotype, including pseudo-absence generation, model evaluation, response curves, ensemble performance, and projected range shifts under future climate scenarios |
| Figure S12 | Relationship between occurrence probability and elevation for the A. fraterculus complex and each morphotype |
Abbreviations and codes
Morphotypes
| Code | Morphotype |
|---|---|
Af_complex |
Anastrepha fraterculus complex (all morphotypes combined) |
Andean |
Andean morphotype |
Brazilian-1 |
Brazilian-1 morphotype |
Brazilian-2 |
Brazilian-2 morphotype |
Brazilian-3 |
Brazilian-3 morphotype |
Ecuadorian |
Ecuadorian morphotype |
Mexican |
Mexican morphotype |
Peruvian |
Peruvian morphotype |
Venezuelan |
Venezuelan morphotype |
Climate scenarios
| Code | Description |
|---|---|
current |
Current climate |
f1 |
MRI-ESM2, SSP3-7.0 (2021–2040) |
f2 |
MRI-ESM2, SSP3-7.0 (2041–2060) |
f3 |
UKESM1-0-LL, SSP5-8.5 (2021–2040) |
f4 |
UKESM1-0-LL, SSP5-8.5 (2041–2060) |
Other abbreviations
| Abbreviation | Meaning |
|---|---|
| TSS | True Skill Statistic |
| SSP | Shared Socioeconomic Pathway |
| MRI-ESM2 | Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2 |
| UKESM1-0-LL | UK Earth System Model 1.0, low-resolution configuration |
Code and software
Data processing and analyses were performed in R using packages including:
BIOMOD2terrarasterCoordinateCleanercaretENMToolsggplot2
as described in the manuscript.
No custom code is provided in this repository.
Access information
Other publicly accessible locations of the data: none
Data was derived from the following sources:
- WorldClim (https://www.worldclim.org)
Citation
If you use this dataset, please cite:
Freilij, D., Vilardi, J.C. & Gómez-Cendra, P.V. (2026) Potential range shifts of the morphotypes within the Anastrepha fraterculus complex (Diptera: Tephritidae): implications under climate change scenarios. Dataset. Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.2ngf1vj4c
Occurrence records used in this study were compiled from published literature and biodiversity databases, georeferenced, taxonomically curated, and assigned to morphotypes when possible. Duplicate, erroneous, and spatially imprecise records were removed, and spatial thinning (5 km) was applied to reduce sampling bias. Environmental variables were obtained from WorldClim 2.1 and processed in R. The supplementary tables deposited in this repository include the curated occurrence dataset, model outputs, evaluation metrics, and environmental and country-level suitability estimates.