Data and code from: Species-specific reduction of survival and aphid consumption in ladybirds exposed to prolonged and intensified heat waves
Data files
Jul 21, 2026 version files 134.10 KB
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Handling_analyses_and_plots.R
9.40 KB
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HW_handling_data.xlsx
34.02 KB
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HW_predation_data.xlsx
28.93 KB
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HW_survival_data.xlsx
26.19 KB
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Predation_analyses_and_plots.R
10.07 KB
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README.md
3.73 KB
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Survival_analyses_and_plots.R
21.76 KB
Abstract
Climate change exacerbates heat waves, threatening ecosystems by disrupting species survival and interactions. Insects are highly sensitive to temperature extremes, exhibiting species-specific stress which can impact community dynamics. Ecosystem services, such as pest control, can therefore be reduced by heat stress. We studied how five ladybird species responded to heat wave conditions, focusing on survival and aphid consumption. While survival was generally unaffected by exposure to realistic heat waves (compared to normal summer temperatures), extreme heat wave (+5°C) reduced survival in four out of five species. Interestingly, one of the most vulnerable species to extreme heat waves was the globally invasive Harmonia axyridis, reaching over 50% mortality in less than 2 days. Prolonged exposure to heat waves (over six days) escalated mortality in two species, and significantly decreased aphid consumption in another two species. This study underscores the potential impacts of heat waves on pest control in a warming world.
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.31zcrjf02
Description of the data and file structure
See metadata sheet in each dataset file for instructions.
Specifically:
HW_predation_data.xlsx:
This file contains data on aphid consumption by ladybirds under three temperature regimes, recorded every three days to capture both immediate and cumulative heat wave effects.
A total of 240 ladybirds were repeatedly tested across trials.
These data were analyzed using GLMs to test effects of temperature regime, heat wave duration, and sex on number of aphids consumed, separately for each species.
HW_handling_data.xlsx:
This file contains handling time data (time in seconds from capture to completion of feeding) for the first aphid consumed by each ladybird during the 15-minute predation trials, recorded on days 3, 6, and 9 under three temperature regimes.
These data were analyzed using GLMs to test the effects of temperature regime, heat wave duration, and sex on handling time, separately for each species.
Predation was low in our tests, some ladybirds did not eat any aphids during testing, so they were assigned NA for handling time.
HW_survival_data.xlsx:
This file contains individual-level survival data for five ladybird species exposed to one of three temperature regimes, simulating current and projected Central European summer conditions.
Survival was recorded twice daily over a 12-day period for 15–18 individuals per sex, species, and regime (517 individuals total).
These data were used to fit species-specific Cox survival models testing the effects of temperature regime and sex on survival, including a separate analysis splitting the 12-day period into "standard" (days 1–6) and "extended" (days 7–12) subperiods for two species.
Some individuals were removed during the experiment because of Dinocampus coccinellae, a parasitoid which can't be screened until it emerges from the adult ladybird. In those cases,
individuals were assigned NA and they were ignored for survival analyses, since their death was unrelated to our experimental design.
Scripts
All corresponding R script files share the name with the dataset files:
Predation_analyses_and_plots.R
Input: HW_predation_data.xlsx (the script loads a txt but the dataset is the same).
Process: Fits GLMs (Poisson/negative binomial, lme4) per species; model selection via BIC, testing and dropping non-significant interaction terms; assumptions checked with DHARMa.
Output: Model summaries and statistics, plots.
Handling_analyses_and_plots.R
Input: HW_handling_data.xlsx (the script loads a txt but the dataset is the same).
Process: Same GLM/BIC model selection approach as predation analysis.
Output: Model summaries and statistics, plots.
Survival_analyses_and_plots.R
Input: HW_survival_data.xlsx (the script loads a txt but the dataset is the same)
Process: Fits Cox proportional hazards models (coxme) per species, testing temperature regime and sex as predictors; includes a secondary analysis splitting survival into "standard" and "extended" subperiods for two species.
Output: Model summaries and statistics, and survival curve plots.
Species abbreviations
Ladybird species abbreviations used in the metadata Excel files:
H_axy = Harmonia axyridis
P_qua = Propylea quatuordecimpunctata
C_sep = Coccinella septempunctata
C_und = Ceratomegilla undecimnotata
H_var = Hippodamia variegata
Conditions
Temperature ranges for all treatments:
Control = 13-27°C
Heat wave (HW) = 17-39°C
Extreme heat wave (EHW) = 22-44°C
