Data from: Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws
Data files
Feb 25, 2019 version files 6.64 MB
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game_freethrows.csv
6.64 MB
Abstract
When extended to data from the 2016--2017 NBA season specifically for LeBron James, a model depending on the previous shot (single-step Markovian) does not clearly beat a model with independent outcomes. An error-correcting variable length model of two parameters, where James shoots a higher percentage after a missed free throw than otherwise, is more predictive than either model.