Adapting species risk assessments to a changing climate: the underestimated vulnerability of foundational trees
Data files
Apr 10, 2026 version files 195.43 KB
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README.md
21.84 KB
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Tables_S1_S2.xlsx
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Abstract
This dataset supports a systematic review and risk assessment of 27 endemic and near-endemic California tree species under projected climate change. It comprises two supplementary tables. Table S1 contains 52 records of species distribution model (SDM) outputs drawn from the published literature, organized by species and source study. For each record, the table includes the species' Latin and common names, the citation, climate models and emissions scenarios used, the type of distribution data (presence-absence), baseline period and year, and projected percent contraction in climatically suitable habitat at mid-century (~2055), end-of-century (~2100), and ~2125 time horizons, reported as low and high estimates. Projected values are standardized to common reference years to enable cross-study comparison. Table S2 provides species-level summary data for all 27 focal species, including total range area (km²), the proportion of range occurring within California, mean projected habitat loss and area of persistence across time horizons and estimate ranges, a demographic change score synthesizing field-observed responses to climate change, and climate risk scores corresponding to IUCN Red List Criteria A3 and B1. Risk scores are reported both across all studies and separately for a focal subset (Rose et al. 2023).
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qsb
Description of the data and file structure
Scoping Review of 27 foundational tree species in California
Files and Variables
Data File
Tables_S1_S2.xlsx — Microsoft Excel workbook containing two worksheets (Table S1 and Table S2) summarizing species distribution model outputs and species-level climate risk data for 27 endemic and near-endemic California tree species.
Table S1: SDMs by Species
52 rows × 25 columns. Each row represents a single species–study combination from the published SDM literature.
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| ID number | Numeric identifier linking each SDM record to the focal species list |
| Species Latin name | Binomial scientific name of the focal tree species |
| Common name | Common English name of the species |
| Study | Full citation (APA format) of the published source study from which SDM projections were extracted |
| Climate models | Name(s) and version(s) of the General Circulation Model(s) (GCMs) or Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in the source study |
| Emissions scenarios | Greenhouse gas emissions scenario(s) used in the source study (e.g., RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, SRES A2, SRES A1B) |
| Distribution data type | Type of species occurrence data used to build the SDM; values: presence-absence or presence only |
| Baseline years | Calendar year range used as the climate baseline period in the source study (e.g., 1981–2010) |
| Ave year baseline | Arithmetic midpoint of the baseline year range (years) |
| Mid-century % contraction low | Lower bound of projected percent contraction in climatically suitable habitat area at the mid-century time horizon as reported in the source study (%) |
| Mid-century % contraction high | Upper bound of projected percent contraction in climatically suitable habitat area at the mid-century time horizon as reported in the source study (%) |
| Mid-century time period for projection | Calendar year or year range of the mid-century projection period as reported in the source study |
| Mid-century ave yr projection | Arithmetic midpoint of the mid-century projection period (years) |
| Mid-century ave yr projection – yr baseline climate | Difference between the mid-century average projection year and the average baseline year; used to standardize projections across studies (years) |
| 2055 % contraction low | Projected percent habitat contraction, lower estimate, standardized to the reference year 2055 (%) |
| 2055 % contraction high | Projected percent habitat contraction, upper estimate, standardized to the reference year 2055 (%) |
| End of century % contraction low | Lower bound of projected percent contraction in climatically suitable habitat at the end-of-century time horizon as reported in the source study (%) |
| End of century % contraction high | Upper bound of projected percent contraction in climatically suitable habitat at the end-of-century time horizon as reported in the source study (%) |
| End of century time period for projection | Calendar year or year range of the end-of-century projection period as reported in the source study |
| End of century ave yr projection | Arithmetic midpoint of the end-of-century projection period (years) |
| End of century ave yr projection – yr baseline climate | Difference between the end-of-century average projection year and the average baseline year; used to standardize projections across studies (years) |
| 2100 % contraction low | Projected percent habitat contraction, lower estimate, standardized to the reference year 2100 (%) |
| 2100 % contraction high | Projected percent habitat contraction, upper estimate, standardized to the reference year 2100 (%) |
| 2125 % contraction low | Projected percent habitat contraction, lower estimate, standardized to the reference year 2125 (%) |
| 2125 % contraction high | Projected percent habitat contraction, upper estimate, standardized to the reference year 2125 (%) |
Table S2: Species-Level Data
27 rows × 29 columns. Each row represents one focal species, summarizing SDM projections, field demographic evidence, and IUCN Red List climate risk scores.
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| Latin name | Binomial scientific name of the focal tree species |
| Common name | Common English name of the species |
| Demographic change score | Normalized score summarizing field-observed demographic responses to climate change across spatiotemporal analyses. Calculated as: (number of analyses showing expected response [+1] + no change [0] + opposite response [−1]) / total number of analyses. Range: −1 to +1 |
| Total # of spatio-temporal field analyses on climate change | Count of published spatiotemporal field studies providing demographic evidence for climate change response for the species |
| Total # of climate futures SDMs | Count of published SDM projections (future climate scenarios) available for the species and included in Table S1 |
| Total range area (km²) | Total geographic range area of the species, in square kilometers (km²) |
| % of range area in California | Proportion of the species' total range area that falls within California (%; expressed as a decimal: 1.00 = 100%) |
| Mean % projected loss 2055, low estimates | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2055, averaged across studies using the lower bound estimates (%) |
| Mean % projected loss 2055, high estimates | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2055, averaged across studies using the upper bound estimates (%) |
| Mean area of persistence, low loss estimates, 2055 (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2055 under lower-bound loss estimates, averaged across studies (km²) |
| Mean area of persistence, high loss estimates, 2055 (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2055 under upper-bound loss estimates, averaged across studies (km²) |
| Mean % projected loss 2100, low estimates | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2100, lower-bound estimates (%) |
| Mean % projected loss 2100, high estimates | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2100, upper-bound estimates (%) |
| Mean area of persistence, 2100, low loss estimates (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2100 under lower-bound loss estimates (km²) |
| Mean area of persistence, 2100, high loss estimates (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2100 under upper-bound loss estimates (km²) |
| Mean % projected loss 2125, low estimates, all studies | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2125, lower-bound estimates, averaged across all studies (%) |
| Mean % projected loss 2125, high estimates, all studies | Mean projected percent loss of climatically suitable habitat area by 2125, upper-bound estimates, averaged across all studies (%) |
| Mean area of persistence, 2125, low loss estimates, all studies (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2125 under lower-bound estimates, all studies (km²) |
| Mean area of persistence, 2125, high loss estimates, all studies (km²) | Mean projected area of climatically suitable habitat remaining by 2125 under upper-bound estimates, all studies (km²). Note: negative values indicate that projected losses exceed the current range area under some study scenarios |
| A3 climate risk score, all studies | IUCN Red List Criterion A3 climate risk score based on projected habitat loss; derived from all available SDM studies. Higher scores indicate greater risk of qualifying for Endangered or Critically Endangered status |
| B1 climate risk score, all studies | IUCN Red List Criterion B1 climate risk score based on extent of occurrence; derived from all available SDM studies |
| Total climate risk score, all studies | Sum of A3 and B1 climate risk scores across all studies |
| % projected loss 2125, low estimate, Rose | Projected percent habitat loss by 2125, lower-bound estimate, from Rose et al. (2023) only (%) |
| Projected loss 2125, high estimate, Rose | Projected percent habitat loss by 2125, upper-bound estimate, from Rose et al. (2023) only (%) |
| Area of persistence, 2125, low loss estimate, Rose (km²) | Projected area of suitable habitat remaining by 2125 under lower-bound loss estimate, Rose et al. (2023) only (km²) |
| Area of persistence, 2125, high loss estimate, Rose (km²) | Projected area of suitable habitat remaining by 2125 under upper-bound loss estimate, Rose et al. (2023) only (km²) |
| A3 climate risk score, Rose | IUCN Red List Criterion A3 climate risk score derived from Rose et al. (2023) projections only |
| B1 climate risk score, Rose | IUCN Red List Criterion B1 climate risk score derived from Rose et al. (2023) projections only |
| Total climate risk score, Rose | Sum of A3 and B1 climate risk scores using Rose et al. (2023) projections only |
Abbreviations
| Abbreviation | Definition |
|---|---|
| SDM | Species Distribution Model |
| GCM | General Circulation Model |
| RCM | Regional Climate Model |
| RCP | Representative Concentration Pathway |
| SRES | Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) |
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| IUCN | International Union for Conservation of Nature |
| km² | Square kilometers |
| % | Percent |
| NC | No change (used in demographic change score calculation) |
| CMIP5 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 |
| CCSM | Community Climate System Model |
| HadGEM2-ES | Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2, Earth System |
| CNRM-CM5 | Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model version 5 |
| GFDL | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory |
| PCM | Parallel Climate Model |
Missing Values
Missing values are represented by blank cells in both tables. They occur in the following circumstances:
- Table S1: Blank cells in mid-century projection columns indicate that the source study did not report projections for that time horizon. Blank cells in species identifier columns indicate summary or header rows.
- Table S2: Blank cells in the demographic change score and field analyses columns indicate that no spatiotemporal field studies were identified for that species. Blank cells in Rose et al. (2023) columns indicate that species were not included in that source study.
Code/Software
No custom code or scripts were used to generate or process this dataset. No specialized software is required to access or use the data.
The data files are provided in Microsoft Excel Workbook format (.xlsx) and can be opened with any of the following free applications:
- LibreOffice Calc (version 7.0 or later; libreoffice.org) — free, open-source, cross-platform
- Apache OpenOffice Calc (version 4.0 or later; openoffice.org) — free, open-source, cross-platform
- Google Sheets (sheets.google.com) — free, browser-based; import via File > Import
The data can also be read programmatically using free, open-source tools such as Python (with the pandas or openpyxl packages) or R (with the readxl package), without requiring any licensed software.
Access Information
Other publicly accessible locations of the data: None.
This dataset was derived in part from the following publicly available source:
Rose, M. B., Velazco, S. J. E., Regan, H. M., & Franklin, J. (2023). Data from: Rarity, geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province. Dryad Digital Repository. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.gf1vhhmw6
This source dataset is published on Dryad under the Creative Commons Zero (CC0 1.0) public domain dedication, which permits unrestricted reuse, redistribution, and adaptation without attribution requirements. Species distribution model projections extracted from this source are identified in Table S1 (column: Study) and summarized separately in Table S2 (columns labeled "Rose").
All other data in this dataset were extracted and synthesized from values reported in peer-reviewed publications cited in Table S1. No raw data files from those studies are reproduced here; only reported numeric values were transcribed.