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Dryad

Data for: Plant thresholds and community composition of coastal marsh-forest ecotones in the US Northeast

Abstract

Sea level rise is causing coastal salt marshes to migrate upslope into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems.  However, the factors that control marsh migration rates are not well understood, particularly in the US Northeast, where this phenomenon has received little attention. To determine the relationship between environmental variables and plant species composition in marsh migration zones, we examined plant coverage and environmental data for three sites experiencing marsh upslope migration in New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts that varied in slope from 1-3%. We found that only 10% of the variation in plant community composition was explained by inundation time, while models containing multiple predictor variables, including edaphic variables, explained much greater levels of variance. Random forest models predicting native halophyte presence /had accuracies of 69 – 84%, with salinity, flooding duration, and light availability as key predictors. The most accurate model for mature tree presence (84% accuracy) highlighted salinity and flooding time as the most important variables. Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis (TITAN) identified plant community changepoints at soil salinities of 0.8 and 7.6 PSU, reflecting the lower and upper boundaries of the marsh-forest ecotone. Treelines varied in elevation by site, suggesting that the amount of tidal flooding that trees can withstand varies. These results highlight the importance of multiple variables interacting to determine species distributions and community composition in marsh-forest ecotones.