Endemic to the Atlantic Forest in South-eastern Brazil, the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Callithrix flaviceps) is lacking the required attention for effective conservation. We modelled its ecological niche with the main objectives of (1) defining suitable habitat, and (2) prioritizing areas for conservation and/or restoration. Study location: current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps in the Atlantic Forest of South-East Brazil. We used Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling to define current habitat suitability considering four climate and two landscape variables. To identify areas to prioritize for conservation and/or restoration, we predicted future habitat suitability considering the intermediate (RCP4.5) and extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Among the variables included to predict current species distribution, tree canopy cover, precipitation seasonality, and temperature seasonality were the most important whereas digital elevation model and precipitation during the wettest month were the least important. Callithrix flaviceps was most likely to occur in areas with tree canopy cover > 80 %, high precipitation seasonality, and temperature seasonality between 21-23 °C. From the future suitability prediction maps, the Caparaó National Park stands out as a likely key area for the preservation of the species. Furthermore, high climatic suitability but low landscape suitability suggests that habitat restoration in “Serra das Torres” (South of current distribution area) might be a useful strategy. However, creating ecological corridors in the west side of Caparaó would be necessary to improve connectivity. More surveys within and beyond the current geographical range is required to define more precisely the distribution of the species. Our results support the notion that seasonality is important for Callithrix flaviceps, and that as a montane species, it prefers colder environments and higher altitudes. Within both climate change scenarios, Caparaó National Park was predicted to be highly suitable, with a high probability of presence.

Data was gathered from a long time span, from 1960 until 2020. Presence points were recorded by citizen science, researchers sighting, etc. Points were opportunistically recorded, within the whole current geographical range of Callithrix flaviceps.

We modelling current and future habitat suitability using 2 climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (from wordclim.org, open access) and 2 landscape variables.

Landscape variables included elevation from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), at 90 m spatial resolution from EarthEnv (www.earthenv.org) (Robinson, Regetz, & Guralnick, 2014), and Tree Canopy Cover (vegetation > 5 m tall) for the year 2000 (treecover2000), at approximately 30m spatial resolution from Hansen Global Forest Change v1.7 (www.earthenginepartners.appspot.com) (Hansen, et al., 2013).

.csv to be used in excel and/or R