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Dryad

Predicted the effects of climate change on future distributions of ectomycorrhizal fungi

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May 05, 2026 version files 144.80 MB

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Abstract

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi form the dominant mycorrhizal type in European forests and vary in their specificity to tree hosts.  Studying the distributions of ECM fungi can help understand and manage their response to environmental change.  However, fungal geographical distributions at continental scales are poorly understood and whether they vary with host specificity is rarely known.  In this study, we investigated the influence of climate change and host specificity on the geographical distributions of 66 ECM fungi across Europe. We modelled the ECM fungal distributions using ensemble models based on four algorithms. Our models predicted that the distributions of most ECM fungal species will decrease and shift north under climate change predictions from three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) projected for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, and a large number of ECM fungal conifer specialists will lose their current habitats compared to broadleaf specialists and generalists.  These results reflect that distribution modelling for ECM fungi should consider both host trees and global change to guide conservation.