Skip to main content
Dryad

Data from: Evaluating three modelling frameworks for assessing changes in fin whale distribution in the Mediterranean Sea

Data files

May 26, 2026 version files 10.86 MB

Click names to download individual files

Abstract

Aim: Understanding the habitat of highly migratory species is aided by using species distribution models to identify species-habitat relationships and to inform conservation and management plans. While Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are commonly used in ecology, and particularly the habitat modelling of marine mammals, there remains a debate between modelling habitat (presence/absence) versus density (# individuals). Our study assesses the performance and predictive capabilities of GAMs compared to boosted regressions trees (BRTs), for modelling both fin whale density and habitat suitability alongside Hurdle Models treating presence/absence and density as a two-stage process, to address the challenge of zero-inflated data.

Location: Fixed transects crossing the North Western Mediterranean Sea.

Time period: From 2008 to 2022, during the summer period.

Major taxa studied: Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus)

Methods: Data were analysed using traditional line transect methodology, obtaining the Effective Area monitored. Based on existing literature, we select various covariates, either static in nature, such as bathymetry and slope, or variable in time, e.g., SST, MLD, Chl concentration, EKE, and FSLE. We compared both the explanatory power and predictive skill of the different modelling techniques (GAMs, BRT, and Hurdle Model).

Results: Our results show that all models performed well in distinguishing presences and absences, but while density and presence patterns for the fin whale were similar, their dependencies on environmental factors can vary depending on the chosen model. Bathymetry was the most important variable in all models, followed by SST, and the chlorophyll recorded two months before the sighting.

Main conclusions: This study underscores the role SDMs can play in marine mammal conservation efforts and emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate modelling techniques. It also quantifies the relationship between environmental variables and fin whale distribution in an understudied area, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making and spatial management.