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Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability, and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States

Sambado, Samantha1; Vasquez, Váleri1; Cruz-Loya, Mauricio1; Farner, Johannah1; Fay, Rachel1; Bents, Samantha1; Lazaro, Joshua1; Shragai, Talya1; Delwel, Isabel1; Uwera Nalukwago, Desire1; Mordecai, Erin1

Published Dec 03, 2025 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dz08kps9j

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Abstract

Climate and land use change are reshaping the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. West Nile virus (WNV), the most widespread zoonotic arbovirus in the United States, illustrates the need to integrate climate, land use, and social vulnerability across heterogenous landscapes when assessing spatial risk. We present a nationwide, county-level assessment of WNV risk, using complementary statistical and mechanistic models to (1) identify socio-ecological predictors of current WNV incidence, and (2) project species-specific, temperature-dependent transmission suitability under mid- and late-century climate change scenarios. We find that land use gradients, temperature-driven transmission, and both occupational and residential exposure jointly shape WNV incidence, particularly in mixed urban-agricultural landscapes. Future temperature and land use projections suggest spatially variable shifts in environmental suitability, driven by divergent physiological responses among Culex species vectors. Our results highlight temperature and land use as robust, mechanistically grounded predictors of WNV risk at the national scale, while underscoring the need for refined, species-specific analyses at local levels. These insights can inform more targeted surveillance, vector control, and climate adaptation strategies. We also identify key knowledge gaps, particularly around host and vector ecology, that must be addressed to improve public health response in the face of ongoing environmental change.