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Data and code from: Organic waste diversion in the United States can substantially reduce landfill methane emissions but plays a minor role in nutrient recycling

Harrison, Brendan1; Ryals, Rebecca2; Scown, Corinne1

Published Jul 09, 2026 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.g79cnp63d

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Jul 09, 2026 version files 76.23 MB

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Abstract

The decomposition of organic waste in landfills accounts for 17% of U.S. anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce organic waste disposal in landfills, the emissions mitigation potential and nutrient recovery potential of this strategy remains unclear across facility, state, and national scales. Here, we estimated the net greenhouse gas emission mitigation and nutrient recovery potential associated with diverting organic resource streams away from each active municipal landfill in the contiguous U.S. to either composting, anaerobic digestion, or edible food recovery, across multiple scenarios. We also modeled the distribution of compost produced from diverted organics to working lands. Diverting 75% of organic waste, a rate consistent with California’s diversion law, could avoid 1.42 ± 0.50 million metric tonnes (MMT) of CH4 emissions, or 5.7% of all anthropogenic U.S. CH4 emissions, and achieve total mitigation equivalent to 28.92 ± 12.67 MMT of carbon dioxide equivalents. Even at 75% diversion, nearly all compost could be cost-effectively transported and applied to working lands, where it could store 2.82 MMT CO2e in soils. However, we found that compost displaces only 0.3% of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer currently applied to farmland. Our results suggest that while organic waste diversion across the contiguous U.S. could substantially mitigate landfill CH4 emissions and enhance soil organic carbon stocks, its nutrient recycling and fertilizer displacement potential is limited.