Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea-level rise
Data files
Sep 03, 2026 version files 2.41 GB
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1.Species_Impacted_by_SLR.R
19.95 KB
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2.Species-specific_analysis.R
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3.Identifying_refugia.R
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4.Refugia_analysis_and_plot.R
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all_inundated_species_analysis.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2050_SSP119.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2050_SSP126.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2050_SSP245.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2050_SSP370.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2050_SSP585.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2100_SSP119.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2100_SSP126.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2100_SSP245.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2100_SSP370.csv
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inundated_richness_all_2100_SSP585.csv
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Raw_refugia_2050_SSP119.rds
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Raw_refugia_2050_SSP126.rds
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Raw_refugia_2050_SSP245.rds
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Raw_refugia_2050_SSP370.rds
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Raw_refugia_2050_SSP585.rds
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Raw_refugia_2100_SSP126.rds
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Raw_refugia_2100_SSP245.rds
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Raw_refugia_2100_SSP370.rds
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Raw_refugia_2100_SSP585.rds
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Raw_refugia_DF_2100_SSP119.rds
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README.md
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Abstract
Climate-driven sea-level rise (SLR) poses growing threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, yet our understanding of when, where, and which species will be most affected by SLR remains limited. Here, we provide a global assessment of terrestrial vertebrate species’ exposure to SLR and identify potential refugia by integrating high-precision relative SLR projections and Area of Habitat (AOH) maps for 34,120 terrestrial vertebrate species. Considering five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we estimate that up to 13,680 species (including 1,304 threatened species) will experience habitat inundation by 2050, increasing to 15,324 (1,688 threatened) by 2100. These include 57–63 % of birds, 47–52 % of mammals, 28–3 6% of reptiles, and 20–24 % of amphibians. Although only 18 species are projected to lose more than 10 % of their habitat areas, by 2050 under SSP585, this number rises sharply to 109 by 2100. Species with narrow AOHs – particularly reptiles and species already classified as threatened – face major SLR-driven habitat losses. Inland areas predicted to be inundated in Southeast Asia are consistently those that currently support exceptionally high species richness, rarity-weighted richness, and threatened species richness. Safeguarding SLR refugia – defined as non-inundated habitats for species exposed to SLR – is critical, particularly as many predicted refugia are located in low- and middle-income countries, and over 96 % currently are situated outside established protected areas. Overall, SLR is expected to affect a broad range of terrestrial vertebrate taxa, with effects intensifying after 2050. Early international actions can simultaneously safeguard SLR-impacted taxa and catalyze the achievement of Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets.
Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.m0cfxppkb
Description of the data and file structure
The original input datasets used in this study were obtained from publicly available sources and are mentioned below. The files provided in this repository include processed data products, summary tables, and R scripts generated or used in our analyses to support the results reported in the manuscript.
Files and variables
File: all_inundated_species_analysis.csv
Description: This file contains species-level estimates of projected habitat inundation under different time periods and SSP scenarios.
Variables
- species: Scientific name of the species.
- P_inundated: Proportion of the species’ Area of Habitat (AOH) projected to be inundated.
- class: Taxonomic group, including amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals.
- time: Future time period, including 2050 and 2100.
- ssp: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario. The five SSPs range from low to high warming: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These correspond to projected mean global warming of approximately +1.4 °C, +1.8 °C, +2.7 °C, +3.6 °C, and +4.4 °C, respectively, by the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels.
- AOH_1km: Species’ Area of Habitat (AOH)
- IUCN: IUCN Red List threat status.
File: inundated_richness_all_Time_SSP[###].csv
Description: This file contains spatial estimates of total species richness, threatened species richness, and rarity-weighted richness within projected inundation areas.
The file name includes two scenario identifiers:
Time:future time period, including 2050 and 2100.
SSPs:Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, including 119, 126, 245, 370, and 585, corresponding to SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively.
Variables
- spe_number: Total species richness in each inundated pixel.
- area_weight: Rarity-weighted richness in each inundated pixel.
- threatened_number: Threatened species richness in each inundated pixel.
- species: Scientific name of the species occurring in the inundated pixel.
- x: x-coordinate in the Eckert IV projection.
- y: y-coordinate in the Eckert IV projection.
- time: Future time period, including 2050 and 2100.
File: Raw_refugia_2050-2100_SSP[###].rds
Description: This file contains the raw pixel-level data used to identify potential SLR refugia across future time periods and SSP scenarios. SLR refugia are defined as non-inundated habitat pixels that support species exposed to SLR. Each pixel was evaluated using three complementary refugia-prioritization metrics: the total number of impacted species supported, the number of impacted threatened species supported, and the summed proportion of habitat inundated across supported species.
Variables
- x: Projected x-coordinate in the Eckert IV projection.
- y: Projected y-coordinate in the Eckert IV projection.
- Refugia_Rich: Number of SLR-impacted species supported by the non-inundated pixel.
- Refugia_Prop: Summed proportion of habitat inundated across all SLR-impacted species supported by the pixel. Higher values indicate pixels supporting species that are projected to lose larger fractions of their habitats to SLR.
- Refugia_Threat: Number of SLR-impacted threatened species supported by the non-inundated pixel.
- time: Future time period, including 2050 and 2100.
- ssp: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario, including SSP119, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585.
- top_P: Logical indicator showing whether the pixel falls within the top 10% of pixels ranked by Refugia_Prop.
- top_T: Logical indicator showing whether the pixel falls within the top 10% of pixels ranked by Refugia_Threat.
- top_R: Logical indicator showing whether the pixel falls within the top 10% of pixels ranked by Refugia_Rich.
- priority_class: Refugia priority class based on overlap among the three top-10% metrics (top_P, top_T, and top_R). Pixels not selected by any metric are marked as NA.
Code/software
All analyses were conducted in R (version 4.4.2)
File: 1.Species_Impacted_by_SLR.R
Description: This script identifies terrestrial vertebrate species exposed to projected sea-level rise (SLR). It intersects projected inundation areas with species-specific Area of Habitat (AOH) maps across future time periods and SSP scenarios, and calculates whether each species is impacted by SLR.
File: 2.Species-specific_analysis.R
Description: This script performs species-level analyses of SLR impacts. It calculates the proportion and area of each species’ AOH projected to be inundated under different time periods and SSP scenarios, summarizes impacts across taxonomic groups and IUCN threat categories, and identifies species facing high levels of habitat inundation.
File: 3.Identifying_refugia.R
Description: This script identifies potential SLR refugia. SLR refugia are defined as non-inundated habitat pixels that support species exposed to SLR.
File: 4.Refugia_analysis_and_plot.R
Description: This script analyzes and visualizes spatial patterns of SLR refugia. It summarizes refugia across time periods, SSP scenarios, countries, taxonomic groups, and priority classes, and generates figures and summary outputs used to describe refugia distributions and conservation priorities.
Assess Information
Global sea-level projections to 2100 were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (https://zenodo.org/records/6382554). The digital elevation model (DEM) was derived from the SRTM dataset (https://srtm.csi.cgiar.org). Area of Habitat (AOH) maps for mammals and birds are available from Dryad (https://datadryad.org/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.02v6wwq48), while AOH maps for amphibians and reptiles were generated using the aoh R package based on distribution range data from the IUCN Red List (https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/spatial-data-download). These external datasets were used only as input data for our analyses and are not included or redistributed in this Dryad repository; only the derived datasets generated through our analyses are deposited here.