Human-caused climate change has increased wildfire above natural levels across extensive areas of the world and caused vegetation biome shifts, detected and attributed from field observations. These changes threaten ecosystem integrity, yet detailed spatial patterns of risks remain unknown. In the published article, we identify high risk areas in the globally unique ecosystems of Yosemite, Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Lassen Volcanic National Parks through analyses at 10 meter spatial resolution. The data posted here include the results on observed climate change (1895-2023), projected climate change (2071-2100) under two emissions scenarios (reduced emissions RCP2.6, high emissions RCP8.5), observed vegetation biomes, projected vegetation biomes, historical fire return intervals, projected fire return intervals, fire return interval departure in 2024 from estimated 1849 and projected 2100 reference conditions, and severe fire risk in 2024, compared to estimated 1849 and projected 2100 reference conditions and their overlap. An atlas includes 131 maps and graphs of the results.

Dataset DOI: 10.5061/dryad.q573n5txr

Description of the data and file structure

For full description of the data, see metadata file <Gonzalez_and_Verkerke_2026_metadata_Dryad.pdf> and the original publication and supplementary information.

When using these data, cite:

Gonzalez, P. and J. Verkerke. 2026. Climate change increases risks of wildfire and biome shifts in United States national parks. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae89cf

Files and variables

Data format

GeoTiff

Spatial projection

Variable	Value
Research Area	Lassen
Projection	Albers Equal Area Conic
Horizontal datum	North American Datum of 1983
Latitude of origin	23 degrees
Central meridian	-96 degrees
Standard Parallel 1	29.5 degrees
Standard Parallel 2	45.4 degrees
columns	4269 pixels
rows	3439 pixels
Upper left longitude	-2 133 045 meters
Upper left latitude	2 246 715 meters
Spatial resolution	10 meters

Variable	Value
Research Area	Yosemite
Projection	Albers Equal Area Conic
Horizontal datum	North American Datum of 1983
Latitude of origin	23 degrees
Central meridian	-96 degrees
Standard Parallel 1	29.5 degrees
Standard Parallel 2	45.4 degrees
columns	10 236 pixels
rows	8880 pixels
Upper left longitude	-2 094 018.2182 meters
Upper left latitude	1 943 525.7288 meters
Spatial resolution	10 meters

Variable	Value
Research Area	Sequoia
Projection	Albers Equal Area Conic
Horizontal datum	North American Datum of 1983
Latitude of origin	23 degrees
Central meridian	-96 degrees
Standard Parallel 1	29.5 degrees
Standard Parallel 2	45.4 degrees
columns	7840 pixels
rows	12 396 pixels
Upper left longitude	-2 027 618.2182 meters
Upper left latitude	1 825 125.7288 meters
Spatial resolution	10 meters

Data files

area = Lassen, Yosemite, or Sequoia

Climate, observed

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_area.tif	°C	Average annual temperature, 1895–1904
Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_area_SD.tif	°C	Standard deviation of average annual temperature, 1895–1904
Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_area.tif	°C	Change in average annual temperature,1895–2023
Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_area_SD.tif	°C	Standard deviation of the change in average annual temperature, 1895–2023
Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_area.tif	mm/y	Total annual precipitation, 1895–1904
Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_area_SD.tif	mm/y	Standard deviation of total annual precipitation, 1895–1904
Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_area.tif	%	Change in total annual precipitation,1895–2023, fraction of 1895–1904 total annual precipitation
Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_area_SD.tif	%	Standard deviation of the change in total annual precipitation, 1895–2023, fraction of 1895–1904 total annual precipitation

Climate, projected

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_area.tif	°C	Average annual temperature, 2071–2100, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6
Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_area_SD.tif	°C	Standard deviation of average annual temperature, 2071–2100, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6
Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_area.tif	°C	Average annual temperature, 2071-2100, high emissions scenario RCP8.5
Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_area_SD.tif	°C	Standard deviation of average annual temperature, 2071–2100, high emissions scenario RCP8.5
Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_area.tif	mm/y	Total annual precipitation, 2071–2100, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6
Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_area_SD.tif	mm/y	Standard deviation of total annual precipitation, 2071–2100, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6
Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_area.tif	mm/y	Total annual precipitation, 2071–2100, high emissions scenario RCP8.5
Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_area_SD.tif	mm/y	Standard deviation of total annual precipitation, 2071–2100, high emissions scenario RCP8.5

Biomes, observed

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_biomes_2023_area.tif	class	0 Water, roads, urban, agriculture
		1 Grassland
		2 Broadleaf woodland
		3 Deciduous and evergreen woodland
		4 Conifer Forest
		5 Red fir forest
		6 Deciduous shrub
		7 Evergreen and deciduous shrubs
		8 Evergreen shrub
		9 Alpine
		10 High-elevation barren

Biomes, projected

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_biomes_2100_moist_area.tif	class	0–10 listed above
Gonzalez_biomes_2100_dry_area.tif	class	0–10 listed above

Fire, historical

File name	Units	Values
fire_return_1849_area.tif	years	Estimated fire return interval, 1849
fire_return_1950_2023_area.tif	years	Actual fire return interval, 1950–2023
time_since_last_fire_2024_area.tif	years	Time since the last fire, 2024, maximum 124 years

Fire, projected

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_moist_area.tif	years	Projected fire return interval, 2071-2100, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6, high precipitation projection
Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_dry_area.tif	years	Projected fire return interval, 2071-2100, high emissions scenario RCP8.5, low precipitation projection

Fire return interval departure (FRID)

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_FRID_2024_1849_area.tif	intervals	FRID, 2024, compared to estimated 1849 reference condition
Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_moist_area.tif	intervals	FRID, 2024, compared to projected 2100 reference condition, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6, high precipitation projection
Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_dry_area.tif	intervals	FRID, 2024, compared to projected 2100 reference condition, high emissions scenario RCP8.5, low precipitation projection

Severe fire risk

File name	Units	Values
Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_moist_area.tif	class	0 not severe
		1 severe under 1849 reference condition
		2 severe under 2100 reference condition, reduced emissions scenario RCP2.6, high precipitation projection
		3 severe under 1849 and 2100 reference conditions
Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_dry_area.tif	class	0 not severe
		1 severe under 1849 reference condition
		2 severe under 2100 reference condition, high emissions scenario RCP8.5, low precipitation projection
		3 severe under 1849 and 2100 reference conditions

Descriptions of Variables

Climate, observed: Mean and standard deviation of average annual temperature and total annual precipitation for the period 1895–1904, calculated from Prism climate data (Daly et al. 2008)

Temperature change, observed: Mean and standard deviation of change in average annual temperature between the periods 1895–1904 and 2014–2023, calculated from Prism climate data (Daly et al. 2008)

Precipitation change, observed: Mean and standard deviation of change in total annual precipitation, between the periods 1895–1904 and 2014–2023, as a fraction of the mean for the period 1895–1904, calculated from Prism climate data (Daly et al. 2008)

Climate, projected: Mean and standard deviations of average annual temperature and total annual precipitation for the period 2071–2100 from the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, derived from Gonzalez et al. (2018)

Biomes, observed: Major vegetation type observed in 2023, derived from Landfire (USGS 2024), additional roads from U.S. Bureau of the Census (2024)

Biomes, projected: Major vegetation type projected for the period 2071–2100, from empirical equations of 2023 biomes as a function of 1950–2023 climate, with projected climate from the period 2071–2100 applied to the equations, for the RCP2.6 moist and RCP8.5 dry scenarios

Fire, historical: Fire return interval is the time between fires; Fire return interval (1849) derived from USDA FS (2022); Fire return interval (1950–2023) and the time since the last fire (before 2024) calculated from observed fire perimeters (CalFire 2024)

Fire, projected: Fire frequency projected for the period 2071–2100, from empirical equations of fire frequency for each biome as a function of 1950–2023 climate, with projected climate from the period 2071–2100 applied to the equations, for the RCP2.6 moist and RCP8.5 dry scenarios

Fire return interval departure (FRID): A measure of how close the actual fire return interval is to a reference level; FRID = [(reference fire return interval - time since last fire)/reference fire return interval]; fire return interval = 1/fire frequency; calculated from USDA (2022), CalFire (2024), and projected fire frequency (this research); as an example to interpret FRID, if the reference level is 10 years and the time since the last fire is 20 years, FRID = -1, indicating the pixel is one interval late for a fire

Fire risk, severe: Fire managers consider FRID ≤ -5 intervals as severe; These data layers indicate areas of severe fire risk using reference conditions of pre-European American settlement (1849) and, separately, climate change (2071–2100), and their overlap

References

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire). 2024. California fire perimeters, vectors, 1950-2023. https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/fire-resource-assessment-program/fire-perimeters

Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J.I. Smith, W.P. Gibson, M.K. Doggett, G.H. Taylor, J. Curtis, and P.P. Pasteris. 2008. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688

Gonzalez, P., F. Wang, M. Notaro, D.J. Vimont, and J.W. Williams. 2018. Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks. Environmental Research Letters 13: 104001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade09

U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2024. Tiger/Line files, all roads, vectors, 2023. https://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/geo/shapefiles/index.php?year=2023&layergroup=Roads

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service (FS). 2022. Fire return interval departure (FRID), Region 5, California, vectors, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20250114192541/https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/r5/landmanagement/gis/?cid=stelprdb5327836

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2022. Landfire, fire return interval, table, 2020, https://landfire.gov/sites/default/files/CSV/LF2020/LF20_BPS_220.csv

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 2024. Landfire, existing vegetation type, 30 m spatial resolution, 2023. https://www.landfire.gov/data-downloads/CONUS_LF2023/LF2023_EVT_CONUS.zip

Atlas

Atlas of 131 maps and graphs, publicly available on University of California eScholarship:

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3r68k8qz

<Gonzalez_and_Verkerke_2026_climate_change_wildfire_atlas.pdf>

Dryad file list

File: Gonzalez_and_Verkerke_2026_metadata_Dryad.pdf

File: Gonzalez_and_Verkerke_2026_climate_change_wildfire_atlas.pdf

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Lassen_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2023_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_moist_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_dry_Lassen.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1849_Lassen.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1950_2023_Lassen.tif.zip

File: time_since_last_fire_2024_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_moist_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_dry_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_1849_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_moist_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_dry_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_moist_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_dry_Lassen.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_tfw_files_Lassen.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Yosemite_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2023_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_moist_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_dry_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1849_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1950_2023_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: time_since_last_fire_2024_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_moist_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_dry_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_1849_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_moist_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_dry_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_moist_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_dry_Yosemite.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_tfw_files_Yosemite.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_1895_1904_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_change_1895_2023_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_1895_1904_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_change_1895_2023_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP26_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_temperature_RCP85_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP26_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_precipitation_RCP85_Sequoia_SD.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2023_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_moist_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_biomes_2100_dry_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1849_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: fire_return_1950_2023_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: time_since_last_fire_2024_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_moist_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_return_2100_dry_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_1849_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_moist_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_FRID_2024_2100_dry_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_moist_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_fire_risk_severe_2024_1849_2100_dry_Sequoia.tif.zip

File: Gonzalez_tfw_files_Sequoia.zip

Software

All Geographic Information System (GIS) software applications should be able to read the GeoTiff files. Please note that all of the auxiliary <.tfw> files are saved together in <.zip> files for each research area <Gonzalez_tfw_files_Lassen.zip>, <Gonzalez_tfw_files_Yosemite.zip>, <Gonzalez_tfw_files_Sequoia.zip>

Access information

Dryad is the site for public access to the data.

The scientific publication provides details on data sources and analyses.

Data from: Climate change increases risks of wildfire and biome shifts in United States national parks in California

Data files

Abstract

Description of the data and file structure

Files and variables

Data files

Climate, observed

Climate, projected

Biomes, observed

Biomes, projected

Fire, historical

Fire, projected

Fire return interval departure (FRID)

Severe fire risk

Descriptions of Variables

References

Dryad file list

Software

Access information

Data from: Climate change increases risks of wildfire and biome shifts in United States national parks in California

Data files

Abstract

README: Data from: Climate change increases risks of wildfire and biome shifts in United States national parks in California

Description of the data and file structure

Files and variables

Data files

Climate, observed

Climate, projected

Biomes, observed

Biomes, projected

Fire, historical

Fire, projected

Fire return interval departure (FRID)

Severe fire risk

Descriptions of Variables

References

Dryad file list

Software

Access information