Global coastal wind hazard maps from the CHAZ tropical cyclone model

Meiler, Simona1 ; Lee, Chia-Ying2 ; Sobel, Adam 2 ; Camargo, Suzana2

Published Nov 19, 2025 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.qfttdz0vz

Data files

Nov 19, 2025 version files 58.45 GB

Abstract

Synthetic tropical cyclone (TC) models have become essential tools for assessing TC hazard and risk, due to both the shortness of observational records and, now, the influence of climate change. However, the direct output from these models, TC track sets, requires additional processing to become useful for impact assessments beyond traditional climate science and meteorological research. Converting TC tracks into hazard maps condenses complex information on TC intensity and frequency into widely accessible formats, facilitating diverse impact analyses. Here, we present global coastal wind risk maps generated using the Columbia tropical cyclone hazard model (CHAZ) for both present-day and future climate conditions. Climate scenario-driven data are provided for a recent historical period (1995-2014) and two future periods, mid-century (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100); a reference data set downscaled from an observation-based reanalysis for 1981-2019 is also provided. These hazard maps depict TC intensity exceedance probabilities and return periods, providing valuable insights to policymakers, planners, and researchers focused on disaster preparedness.

Folder Structure Overview

The dataset is organized first by hazard metric (exceedance_intensity or return_periods), then by file format (csv, nc, or raster.nc). Within each format, files are grouped as follows:

ERA5/: Historical baseline based on ERA5 reanalysis
per-GCM/<GCM>/sspXXX/: Individual GCM simulations grouped by GCM and SSP

Folder Details

return_periods.zip: Local return period estimates for fixed wind intensity thresholds
exceedance_intensity.zip: Local wind intensity associated with a specific return period (e.g., 100-year wind)

Formats

csv: Point-based comma-separated files with geographic coordinates (lat, lon) and the hazard variables listed below.
nc: NetCDF format with point-based hazard data
raster.nc: NetCDF raster format on a regular 180 arcsecond grid; use with caution over ocean regions due to coarse interpolation

Hazard variable convention across all formats:

For return_periods: thr_33 and thr_50 = return periods for tropical cyclone wind intensities exceeding 33 m/s and 50 m/s respectively
For exceedance_intensity: rp_10, rp_25, rp_50, rp_100, rp_250, rp_1000 = the tropical cyclone wind intensities with a return period (rp) of 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 1000 years

Climate Models and Scenarios

Climate Model	Reference
CESM2	Danabasoglu et al. (2020)
CNRM-CM6-1	Voldoire et al. (2019)
EC-Earth3	EC-Earth Consortium (2019)
IPSL-CM6A-LR	Hourdin et al. (2020)
MIROC6	Tatebe et al. (2019)
UKESM1-0-LL	Sellar et al. (2020)

Scenarios:

ssp245
ssp370
ssp585

Periods:

base: 1995-2014 (historical baseline)
fut1: 2041-2060 (mid-century)
fut2: 2081-2100 (late century)

Variable Definitions

TCGI: Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index
- CRH: Column-integral relative humidity
- SD: Saturation deficit
H08: Holland 2008 wind field parameterization

Ensemble Info

80ens: Single-GCM simulation representing 80 ensembles which results in approximately 1600 synthetic years of TCs

Example path:

CHAZ_hazard_maps/exceedance_intensity/csv/per-GCM/CESM2/ssp370/TC_global_0300as_CHAZ_CESM2_fut1_ssp370_80ens_CRH_H08_exceedance_intensity.csv

File Naming Convention

All files follow the standardized naming pattern:

TC_<basin>_<res>_CHAZ_<GCM>_<period>_<scenario>_<ens>_<TCGI>_<wind>_<map>.<format>

For example:

TC_global_0300as_CHAZ_CESM2_fut1_ssp370_80ens_CRH_H08_exceedance_intensity.csv

With:

<basin>: always global
<res>: spatial resolution (0300as = 300 arcseconds ≈ 9.3km at the equator)
<GCM>: climate model or ERA5 or ALL-MODELS
<period>: time window (base, fut1, fut2)
<scenario>: climate scenario (ssp245, ssp370, ssp585)
<ens>: number of ensemble years (80ens, 480ens)
<TCGI>: tropical cyclone genesis index moisture formulation (CRH or SD)
<wind>: wind model used (H08 = Holland 2008)
<map>: return_periods or exceedance_intensity
<format>: csv, nc (NetCDF), or raster.nc (gridded NetCDF)

Usage Notes

Wind fields are primarily designed for land-based impact assessments. We do not recommend using values over oceans.
Use caution when comparing different TCGI variants (CRH vs SD).

Related Resources

CHAZ hazard modeling framework (GitHub)
Associated article: Meiler et al., submitted to Scientific Data

Licensing and Citation

This dataset is released under the Creative Commons Zero (CC0) waiver. You are free to reuse, modify, and redistribute it. If you use this dataset in your research, please cite the associated publication and credit the authors accordingly.

For questions or feedback, please contact: Simona Meiler, simona@simonameiler.ch