This directory contains all input datasets used in the analysis. Files are organized by thematic category mirroring the file structure in the repository. Filenames are unchanged from the files used in the final run of the analysis. Several files were unable to be included due to licensing restrictions but are included in the readme to provide a full description of the model input requirements. See the associated code repository ([https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9s4mw6mxn] https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9s4mw6mxn)) for scripts that will help recreate these from appropriate primary data sources. Links are provided below for sources of the necessary inputs.

For detailed methods relating to these files, see the Supplementary Information provided with the publication.

Root-level files

• 2022-09-06-final.txt
  • Format: Plain text
  • Units: —
  • Source: Created by team.
  • Description: List of the countries included in the analysis.
• lulc_codes.csv
  • Format: CSV
  • Units: —
  • Source: ESA CCI, modified by team. 
  • Description: Modified version of ESA LULC codes. Includes additional codes that indicate
    whether a pixel is used for agricultural activities. Categorical columns indicate these uses and
    group codes into natural and agricultural.

biodiversity/2022_07_05/

• predicts_July_2022.csv
  • Format: CSV
  • Units: N/A
  • Source: PREDICTS database: Based on Newbold et al. 2015 Nature (https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14324).
  • Description: Lookup table used by the PREDICTS model to link ESA land cover classes to PREDICTS land cover classes
• predicts2_July_2022.csv
  • Format: CSV
  • Units: Percentage
  • Source: PREDICTS database: Based on Newbold et al. 2015 Nature (https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14324).
  • Description: Secondary PREDICTS lookup table. Used alongside predicts_July_2022.csv to estimate taxon-specific biodiversity under different land-use scenarios.

biodiversity/GlobalLayers/

Note that files from IUCN and the KBA data are not provided in the repository due to licensing constraints. Data analogous to what we used can be downloaded from the provided links.

• Amphibians.tif, Birds.tif, Mammals.tif, Reptiles.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Number of species per pixel (species richness)
  • Source: IUCN range maps (similar maps can be found here: https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/other-spatial-downloads)
  • Description: Total species richness per pixel for each vertebrate taxon. Global species pools used for normalisation: Amphibians 6,631; Birds 10,424; Mammals 5,709; Reptiles 6,416.
• AmphibiansEndemic.tif, BirdsEndemic.tif, MammalsEndemic.tif, ReptilesEndemic.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Range-weighted richness of species
  • Source: IUCN range maps (similar maps can be found here: https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/other-spatial-downloads)
  • Description: Count of endemic species per pixel for each vertebrate taxon.
• AmphibiansRL.tif, BirdsRL.tif, MammalsRL.tif, ReptilesRL.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Number of Red List species per pixel
  • Source: IUCN Red List / range maps (similar maps can be found here: https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/other-spatial-downloads)
  • Description: Count of IUCN-threatened (Red List) species per pixel for each vertebrate taxon.
• KBAs.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary / categorical
  • Source: Key Biodiversity Areas database (https://www.keybiodiversityareas.org/map)
  • Description: Spatial layer indicating Key Biodiversity Area designations.
• band1.tif, band14.tif, band24.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Categorical and use classes
  • Source: European Space Agency
  • Description: Bands from a ESA land cover layers representing 2005, 2015, and 2025 land use and cover
• ecoMaps.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Categorical (ecoregion ID)
  • Source: (https://ecoregions.appspot.com/)
  • Description: Ecoregion classification raster used to stratify biodiversity calculations.
• flii.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Index (stored as 0–10,000; divided by 10,000 in code to give 0–1)
  • Source: Forest Landscape Integrity Index (FLII). Grantham, H.S., Duncan, A., Evans, T.D. et al. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19493-3
  • Description: Forest intactness index per pixel. Used in biodiversity calculations to weight species richness estimates.
• plantation_2022_06_03.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary / categorical
  • Source: —
  • Description: Plantation mask used to adjust biodiversity estimates in plantation-dominated pixels.

carbon/

• carbon_table_2022-08-10.csv
  • Format: CSV
  • Units: Tonnes of carbon per hectare (tC/ha)
  • Source: Derived from Spawn, et al (2020) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0444-4
  • Description: Lookup table of carbon storage values by land-use type and ecoregion zone. Used with new_ecoregions.tif to calculate per-pixel carbon stocks. Carbon values are multiplied by 100 in code to convert from tC/ha to tC/km².
• new_ecoregions.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Categorical (zone ID)
  • Source: Dinerstein, et al (2017) https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix014
  • Description: Ecoregion zone raster used as a row index into carbon_table_2022-08-10.csv to assign carbon storage values by zone and land-use type.

cropland/oil_palm_split/

• totalproductionvaluecurrent_NoPalmOilRevR_nolabor_machinerycosts.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Derived from Ray, et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
  • Description: Current crop production revenue per hectare, excluding palm oil and excluding labour and machinery costs. Used for pixels under current agricultural practices (including mosaics weighted by cropland fraction).
• totalproductionvaluecurrent_OnlyPalmOilRevR_nolabor_machinerycosts.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Derived from Ray, et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
  • Description: Current palm oil production revenue per hectare, excluding labour and machinery costs. Applied separately to pixels classified as oil palm.
• totalproductionvalueirrigated_NoPalmOilRevR_nolabor_machinerycosts.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Derived from Ray, et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
  • Description: Potential irrigated crop production revenue per hectare, excluding palm oil and excluding labour and machinery costs. Used for intensified irrigated scenarios (BMP scenarios use 90% of this value).
• totalproductionvaluerainfed_NoPalmOilRevR_nolabor_machinerycosts.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Derived from Ray, et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
  • Description: Potential rainfed crop production revenue per hectare, excluding palm oil and excluding labour and machinery costs. Used for intensified rainfed scenarios (BMP scenarios use 90% of this value).

current_lulc/

• modifiedESA_2022_06_03.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Categorical (LULC code)
  • Source: ESA Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), modified. Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store, (2019): Land cover classification gridded maps from 1992 to present derived from satellite observation. Developed by ESA CCI Land Cover project. DOI: 10.24381/cds.006f2c9a. (Applies to all references to ESA LULC). 
  • Description: Current land use/land cover classification raster. Modified version of ESA CCI-LC with additional codes for agricultural sub-types (see lulc_codes.csv). Base map for all scenario construction and ecosystem service calculations. See makeNewESAbasemaps.py for code that converts current ESA land cover to this layer

forestry/

• forestry_land_share_return_tcost_before_2022_07_23.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Created by team (see SI for methods)
  • Description: Potential forestry returns per hectare. Applied directly to pixels classified as forestry land-use types.

grazing/

• potential_meat_returns-t_per_ha_global_price_landshare_md5_d7cfbe4828d5b9a2e11ef1b6e2ccc174.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per hectare
  • Source: Created by team (see SI for methods)
  • Description: Potential grazing revenue per hectare at global meat prices, weighted by land share. Applied to pixels where grazing potential > 0; multiplied by pixel area (km² × 100) to obtain per-pixel values.
• potential_methane_filled_0.5_md5_9a8735eb022a44bc5a00b809bea69bcb.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: kg per hectare per year
  • Source: Created by team (see SI for methods)
  • Description: Potential methane emissions from grazing livestock per hectare per year. Converted to a 20-year CO₂-equivalent stock in the final GHG calculation (× 0.001 to convert kg to tonnes, × 20 for a 20-year horizon).

national_boundaries/

• countries_iso3_NCI_trimmed (.shp, .shx, .dbf, .prj, .qpj)
  • Format: ESRI Shapefile
  • Units: —
  • Source: —
  • Description: Country boundary polygons with ISO3 country codes, trimmed for the NCI analysis extent. Used to define area-of-interest boundaries for each country processed by the pipeline.

pixel_area/

• ESACCI-LC-L4-LCCS-Map-300m-P1Y-2015-v2.0.7_pixel_area_km2.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: km² per pixel
  • Source: Created by team
  • Description: Pixel area in km² for each 300 m grid cell, accounting for latitude-dependent variation in pixel size. Used throughout all ecosystem service modules to convert per-hectare values to per-pixel totals (multiplied by 100 to convert km² to ha).

scenario_construction/ag_crop_suitability_maps/

• irrigation_mask_ESAaligned.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Based on World Bank (2021) http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099355106152228725/P1772780c5a1a803508c960324aa29b1ffa
  • Description: Mask indicating pixels suitable for at least one irrigated crop based on
    climatic conditions (growing degree days and annual precipitation), aligned to the ESA LULC
    grid. Used to constrain irrigated cropland expansion scenarios.
• rainfed_mask_ESAaligned.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Based on World Bank (2021) http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099355106152228725/P1772780c5a1a803508c960324aa29b1ffa
  • Description: Mask indicating pixels suitable for at least one rainfed crop based on
    climatic conditions (growing degree days and annual precipitation), aligned to the ESA LULC
    grid. Used to constrain rainfed cropland expansion scenarios.

scenario_construction/ag_irrigation_potential/

• sustainable_irrigation_mask.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Derived from Rosa, et al (2019) https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4bfc
  • Description: Mask indicating pixels where sustainable irrigation is feasible. Used to limit irrigated intensification scenarios to environmentally sustainable locations.

scenario_construction/ag_natural_expansion_potential/

• suitability_expansion_potential_mask_ESAaligned.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Zabel, et al (2014)
  • Description: Soil and land suitability mask for natural agricultural expansion, aligned to the ESA LULC grid. Constrains where cropland extensification scenarios can occur.

scenario_construction/ag_slope_exclusion_masks/

• expansion_full.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Created by team.
  • Description: Slope-based exclusion mask for agricultural expansion scenarios. Pixels with slopes above the threshold are excluded from expansion.
• intensification_full.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Created by team.
  • Description: Slope-based exclusion mask for agricultural intensification scenarios. Pixels with slopes above the threshold are excluded from intensification.

scenario_construction/potential_vegetation/

• potential_vegetation.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Categorical (LULC code)
  • Source: ESA CCI
  • Description: Potential natural vegetation classification raster using the same LULC coding scheme as modifiedESA_2022_06_03.tif. Used as the reference state in carbon calculations and in restoration scenario construction.
• succession_matrix.csv
  • Format: CSV
  • Units: N/A
  • Source: Created by team
  • Description: Matrix defining land-cover succession pathways, specifying which LULC class a pixel transitions toward under natural regeneration.

scenario_construction/protected_areas/

• wdpa_merged.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary / categorical
  • Source: World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), https://www.protectedplanet.net/en/thematic-areas/wdpa?tab=WDPA
  • Description: We used the UNEP-WCMC Protected Planet World Database on Protected Areas and exported the polygons that belonged to IUCN protected classes I-IV (strict protection, not allowing sustainable use). We then flattened this polygon to remove multiparts for a single polygon layer and rasterized the resulting layer to a mask of strict protection areas. This mask was used in the assignment of grazing, crop, and forestry classes that were not allowed within these areas.

scenario_construction/riparian_buffer_location/

• riparian_buffer_mask_md5_6184cf8ea3ce479e1a0538fc49df2175.tif
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: Binary (0/1)
  • Source: Created by team
  • Description: Mask identifying pixels within riparian buffer zones. Used to restrict land-use change in areas adjacent to water bodies.

transition_costs/

• tran_cost_{scenario}.tif — where {scenario} is one of: base_lulc, extensification_bmps_irrigated, extensification_bmps_rainfed, extensification_current_practices, extensification_intensified_irrigated, extensification_intensified_rainfed, fixedarea_bmps_irrigated, fixedarea_bmps_rainfed, fixedarea_intensified_irrigated, fixedarea_intensified_rainfed, forestry_expansion, grazing_expansion, restoration, sustainable_current (14 files total)
  • Format: GeoTIFF raster
  • Units: USD per pixel
  • Source: Created by team
  • Description: Pre-calculated transition cost surface for each land-use change scenario. Represents the one-time cost of converting from the current LULC to the scenario LULC. Loaded directly by the pipeline without further per-hectare conversion.