Data and code from: Environmental drivers of metapopulation dynamics throughout the full annual cycle in a declining Arctic-nesting migratory herbivore
Data files
Feb 10, 2026 version files 196.12 KB
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growing_degree_days_breeding.csv
2.88 KB
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growing_degree_days_spring_staging.csv
2.96 KB
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growing_degree_days_winter.csv
2.96 KB
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juvenile_long.csv
1.44 KB
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multistate_capture_history.csv
175.30 KB
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popcount_matrix.csv
960 B
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README.md
6.01 KB
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snowfall.csv
2.96 KB
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storm_days.csv
648 B
Abstract
Assessing the impacts of changing environmental conditions on animal species requires a thorough understanding of population dynamics, which can be difficult to estimate when animals aggregate into spatially discrete subpopulations. We used 39 years of fecundity, capture-recapture, and abundance data in an integrated metapopulation model to study environmental drivers of demography in a declining migratory bird, the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris). We found that low fecundity due to earlier spring vegetation phenology on staging areas and increased snow on breeding areas explained metapopulation decline, though the strength of these effects varied by subpopulation. Differential immigration and emigration rates affected local wintering abundance trends, highlighting the importance of quantifying subpopulation-metapopulation dynamics for understanding fragmented animal populations. We provide a framework for extending commonly used integrated population models to a metapopulation framework for testing novel ecological hypotheses about how changing environmental conditions within and among subpopulations can drive changes in animal abundance.
Data DOI: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sqv9s4nd7
Code DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14284298
Data users are encouraged to contact the corresponding author with questions about this data package or to seek potential collaborations using these data.
Authors
Alexander R. Schindler
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Anthony D. Fox
Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Alyn J. Walsh
National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland
Larry R. Griffin
Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust, Gloucester, UK
ECO-LG Limitied, Dumfries, UK
Seán B. A. Kelly
National Parks and Wildlife Service, Dublin, Ireland
Mitch D. Weegman
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Description
Model code and associated data files to estimate survival, fecundity, immigration, emigration, abundance, and abundance trends for four Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris) wintering subpopulation groups. See manuscript for additional context.
R code files
00_nimble_restart_functions.R: functions used inIMM.Rto continue model run from a new session (for improving model convergence)01_IMM.R:Integrated Metapopulation Model to estimate demography and associated environmental drivers of Greenland white-fronted geese02_PPC_count_fec.R: Posterior predictive checks for population and fecundity sub-models in the Integrated Metapopulation Model03_PPC_multistate.R: Posterior predictive checks for multistate sub-models in the Integrated Metapopulation Model04_plot_demograhpic_estimates.R: Plotting Greenland white-fronted goose demographic estimates from the Integrated Metapopulation Model05_plot_env_covariate_predictions.R: Prediction plots for the effects of weather on Greenland white-fronted goose fecundity06_env_covariate_violin_plots.R: Violin plots for the effects of environmental conditions and hunting on Greenland white-fronted goose demography07_calculate_imm_rates.R: Calculate subpopulation-level immigration rates from the integrated metapopulation model results08_tLTRE.R: Transient life table response experiments to calculate contributions of demographic rates to realised population growth rates09_plot_contr_pop_growth.R: Plotting tLTRE results of contributions of demographic rates to realised population growth rates10_source_sink_pop_proj_matrix.R: Post-hoc population projection matrices to evaluate source-sink dynamics among subpopulations11_plotting_pop_matrix_lambdas.R: Violin plots of projected subpopulation growth rates from post-hoc population projection matrices
Data files
popcount_matrix.csv: Annual total counts (adults + juveniles) of female Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation group- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to the start of winter, i.e., 1983 = winter of 1983/1984)
- note: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females
adult_matrix.csv: Annual counts of female adult Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation group- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to the start of winter, i.e., 1983 = December 1983 - April 1984)
- note: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females
juvenile_long.csv: Annual counts of female juvenile Greenland white-fronted geese in each wintering subpopulation groupsubpop: numeric identifier for subpopulation group (1 = Wexford, 2 = Islay, 3 = Loch Ken, 4 = Elsewhere)year: numeric identifier for year (i.e., 1 = winter 1983/1984)count_j_f: count of juvenile Greenland white-fronted geese- note: values are 1/2 total counts to approximate number of females
multistate_capture_history.csv: Multistate capture histoties for all Greenland white-fronted geese captured during the study- rows: individual Greenland white-fronted goose capture histories
- columns: year (i.e., 1983_1984 = December 1983 - April 1984)
- states: 1 = juvenile at Wexford, 2 = juvenile at Islay, 3 = juvenile at Loch Ken, 4 = juvenile elsewhere (unobserved),
5 = adult at Wexford, 6 = adult at Islay, 7 = adult at Loch Ken, 8 = adult Elsewhere
growing_degree_days_winter.csv: Growing degree days on wintering areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C]
from 1 January through day geese departed for spring migration) for each wintering subpopulation group and year- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to day geese departed for spring migration)
growing_degree_days_spring_staging.csv: Growing degree days on spring staging areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C]
from 1 January through day geese arrived) for each wintering subpopulation group and year- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived)
growing_degree_days_breeding.csv: Growing degree days on breeding areas (i.e., cumulative growing degree units [degrees C]
from 1 January through day geese arrived) for each wintering subpopulation group and year- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived)
snowfall.csv: Cumulative snowfall (in mm) on breeding areas from the start of winter until the day geese arrived- rows: subpopulation group
- columns: year (corresponds to day geese arrived)
storm_days.csv: Cumulative number of severe storms occurring within 7 days before or after departures from wintering, spring staging,
breeding and autumn staging areas on corresponding migration pathways- rows: subpopulation group
- coumns: year (corresponds to year of spring and subsequent autumn migrations)