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Data from: Reconstructing substitution histories on phylogenies, with accuracy, precision, and coverage

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Sep 09, 2026 version files 10.70 MB

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Abstract

Ancestral sequences and substitution histories are usually averaged out in phylogenetic inference and are therefore not reported to the user. However, they can be recovered through ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) and stochastic character mapping. By implementing and validating a new ASR and stochastic mapping package compatible with both single-locus and multispecies coalescent analysis, we show how reconstructing substitution histories can enhance the information gained about the tempo and mode of molecular evolution. We observe that known substitution histories (simulated and empirical) are recovered more accurately and precisely on time trees compared with unconstrained and non-ultrametric substitution trees that lack temporal directionality (maximum likelihood and Bayesian). We show that codon-partition models with site-rate heterogeneity, based on the four nucleotide characters, can effectively approximate the histories of synonymous and non-synonymous change, while requiring far less runtime than computationally demanding codon models that require 61 characters. In turn, this provides low-bias estimation of dN/dS that is robust to non-stationarity in GC content, codon usage bias, and nucleotide exchangeability rates. Lastly, using three case studies, we demonstrate how the approach can recover expected patterns in molecular evolution and pathogen transmission: that i) smaller-bodied mammalian species tend to have faster synonymous substitution rates than larger relatives, ii) amino acid substitutions are correlated with 3Di structural changes in aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, and iii) influenza A virus spread more frequently to nearby locations than distant ones, in a major H3N2 outbreak in New Zealand. These three trends were more pronounced when based on count estimates derived from stochastic mapping, relative to parametric rates and distances. Our open-source code comes with a user-friendly graphical interface, as does the BeastMap package for BEAST 2, supporting a wide range of clock, site, and tree models and data types - including insertions and deletions - within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework.