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Dryad

Blue oak landscape classification outputs based on multi-temporal satellite observations and species distribution models

Abstract

This dataset contains spatial outputs from an approach that integrates vegetation resilience metrics with climate-based projections of future habitat suitability for blue oak (Quercus douglasii) in California. The approach combines temporal mixture residual (TMR) analysis of multi-decadal satellite time series with species distribution models (SDMs) forecasting mid-21st century habitat suitability under a high-emissions climate scenario (RCP 8.5, 2040–2069), averaged for two global climate models (CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES).

Data were generated for two conservation properties managed by The Nature Conservancy: Randall Preserve (Kern County) and Dye Creek Preserve (Tehama County).

The outputs are provided as GeoTIFF raster files (.tif), grouped into two categories:

  1. Land classification rasters (4 files):
    • Landsat-based classification for Randall Preserve
    • Landsat-based classification for Dye Creek Preserve
    • Sentinel-2–based classification for Randall Preserve
    • Sentinel-2–based classification for Dye Creek Preserve
      Each classification raster contains five discrete classes, representing combinations of historical vegetation resilience (derived from TMR residuals) and projected climatic suitability for blue oak habitat. These classes can be used to identify zones of high future potential, low stability, or mismatch between historical resilience and future climate suitability.
  2. Temporal mixture residual (TMR) rasters (4 files):
    • Landsat-based TMR residuals for Randall Preserve

    • Landsat-based TMR residuals for Dye Creek Preserve

    • Sentinel-2–based TMR residuals for Randall Preserve

    • Sentinel-2–based TMR residuals for Dye Creek Preserve

      The TMR rasters provide continuous values that quantify deviations from expected multi-decadal vegetation dynamics. Higher residuals indicate greater instability in vegetation trajectories, while lower residuals indicate more stable, resilient vegetation dynamics.

Together, these datasets enable users to explore how historical vegetation resilience interacts with projected climate suitability at multiple spatial resolutions (30 m for Landsat, 10 m for Sentinel-2). They provide spatially explicit guidance for conservation planning and management in blue oak woodlands, highlighting areas where conservation investment may be most effective under future climate change.