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Data and code from: Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood on the 2020 Lake Fire

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Sep 22, 2026 version files 279.93 MB

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Abstract

The increasing severity of wildfires in Western North America could lead to an increased likelihood of post-fire debris flows (PFDF), specifically those triggered by heavy rain events. PFDF likelihoods are highest in the first year and tend to decrease over time. However, it is not well understood how seasonal variation affects the initiation of PFDFs in the years following the fire. Here, we monitored the changes in PFDF likelihood of the 2020 Lake Fire in Southern California over a span of four years using field and satellite observations together with numerical modeling for a subset of drainage basins within the burn area. We found that hydraulic conductivity increased by an order of magnitude during the dry season as compared to the wet season, significantly reducing the PFDF likelihood. Our simulations show that vegetation cover has a smaller impact on PFDF likelihood as compared to hydraulic conductivity or grain size. This study helps clarify the impacts of hydraulic conductivity, grain size, and vegetation due to seasonal variation four years after the fire. We suggest that field measurements and modeling approaches should consider how different climate and seasonal patterns could influence PFDF even after several years following the fire.