Emergent infectious disease caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal) represent one of the major causes of biodiversity loss in amphibians. While Bd has affected amphibians worldwide, Bsal remains restricted to Asia and Europe, but also could be a major threat for salamanders in the Western hemisphere, including the 320 bolitoglossine species described. Here we predict the suitable areas for Bsal in the Neotropics and assessed its potential impact on bolitoglossine diversity. For this, we determined the geographic patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity for bolitoglossines and modelled the potential distribution of Bsal in the Neotropics. We identified which species and regions could be at risk from an eventual introduction of Bsal in the region, quantified the degree of overlap between regions of high diversity and the suitable conditions for the pathogen, and considered species IUCN Red List status, and geographic range size. We found that regions of high taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity are concentrated in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre Oriental, the southern portion of Sierra Madre del Sur and the mountains of Oaxaca in México, as well as the Chiapan-Guatemalan highlands, and the Cordilleras of Costa Rica and Panama. Alarmingly, the regions of high diversity for bolitoglossines and over 75% of the ranges of the more threatened species could be affected by Bsal. Given the unknown vulnerability of these species, we strongly recommend measures to avoid the introduction of Bsal in the continent.

Data S1

Sequences of Bolitoglossa diminuta, Bolitoglossa pygmaea, Nototriton major, Nototriton tapanti (See Table S2 in Supporting information).

SUPPORTING INFORMATION

Supplementary methods. Climatic suitability for Bsal in the Neotropics

Figure S1. Areas and occurrences of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) used to build the model.

Figure S2. Multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis.

Figure S3. Presence-Absence binary map depicting the potential distribution of B. salamandrivorans based on the minimum training presence threshold.

Table S1. Coordinates compiled for species lacking spatial data on the IUCN Red List.

Table S2. New sequences for 33 species added to the Bolitoglossine phylogeny

Table S3. Measurements of maximum SVL for 311 species included in the study

Table S4. Occurrence data used for modelling the distribution of B. salamandrivorans.

Table S5. Pairwise Pearson correlations of 19 bioclimatic variables.

Table S6. ENMeval models results.

Table S7. Records of B. salamandrivorans from Lötters et al. (2020) for an independent validation.

Table S8. All species analyzed in this study ranked according to their IUCN Red List status, their total range area and the percentage of these areas suitable for Bsal.