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Dryad

Leveraging species associations patterns of macroalga wrack to predict their spatial distribution

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Jun 01, 2026 version files 8.01 MB

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Abstract

Species associations are increasingly recognized as an effective way to improve species distribution model (SDM) predictions by integrating biotic and abiotic information that is difficult to measure in situ. This approach appears promising for monitoring communities where biodiversity and environmental data are sparse or limited. To evaluate its applicability to such communities and to test whether associations estimated in narrow spatial context can capture useful information and be transferred to predict spatial distributions across larger regions, we focused on macroalgal communities in beach wrack. To estimate the information captured by macroalgae species associations, we assessed the predictive improvement they provide when added to models of increasing complexity using a random forest approach. We also examined how species traits influence association patterns among 58 species observed at 130 sites in Brittany, western France. Finally, we quantified the improvement in predictive performance when applying these associations to species distribution models across 402 sites along the French Atlantic coast. We found that species associations both complement and substitute remote sensing and fine-scale habitat descriptors in predicting individual species distributions. Association patterns were related to certain macroalgae traits (e.g., buoyancy status, initial benthic habitats). They significantly improved large-scale predictive performance, despite being derived from limited sample sizes and narrow spatial contexts, confirming that such associations capture more than initial or local environmental factors. Using macroalgal communities in beach wrack, we illustrate that species associations can serve as alternative predictors for communities where biotic and abiotic data are scarce or hard to access. We also highlight their usefulness for predicting at broader spatial scales than those used for their estimation. Leveraging these associations offers promising tools to enhance spatial conservation planning, identify sampling biases, and guide efficient surveys (e.g., in exotic or rare species of high conservation concern).