The dual influence of top-down and bottom-up processes on a mesopredator and the consequences for prey
Data files
Jun 29, 2026 version files 35.68 KB
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Hare_grouse_SO_vs_other.csv
1.32 KB
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Hare_grouse_SO_vs_other.R
2.19 KB
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README.md
6.45 KB
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Red_fox_data.csv
1.79 KB
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Red_fox.R
23.94 KB
Abstract
Ecosystem dynamics are shaped by interacting top-down and bottom-up processes, yet their relative importance may vary through time following disturbances such as disease outbreaks and changes in apex predator communities. Using a 52-year time series in south-central Sweden, we examined how disease, apex predators, and prey availability jointly impact a mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and how these dynamics propagate to secondary prey. Potential drivers of fox dynamics (number of litters) were vole (Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus agrestis) abundance, sarcoptic mange outbreaks, and the re-establishment of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and wolves (Canis lupus), and we assessed potential subsequent effects on hare (Lepus europaeus and L. timidus) and woodland grouse (Lyrurus tetrix and Tetrao urogallus) densities. Fox litter numbers were positively associated with vole abundance throughout the study period, indicating persistent bottom-up regulation. In contrast, top-down effects were evident through reductions in number of fox litters during sarcoptic mange outbreaks and following the simultaneous presence of lynx and wolves. Support for the mesopredator release hypothesis was context dependent: densities of secondary prey increased during the mange outbreak but declined after apex predator re-establishment, despite reduced number of fox litters. Moreover, the characteristic synchrony between voles and secondary prey weakened following the return of apex predators, suggesting direct and indirect effects beyond mesopredator suppression. Our results demonstrate that fox reproductions are regulated by concurrent top-down and bottom-up processes and that apex predator recovery can alter trophic relationships and not only reverse mesopredator release.
Description of the data and file structure:
Data file: Red_fox_data.csv
Variables:
- Year: year from 1973-2024
- Fox_litter: number of red fox litters. Data on fox reproduction were obtained from annual monitoring of fox litters conducted at Grimsö Wildlife Research Area (135 km2) in south-central Sweden since 1973 (https://data.fieldsites.se/portal/). Surveys were carried out each May-June by inspecting all known dens (varying 120-210 among years). The presence of den entrance wear, pup scats or prey remains was used to confirm reproductive activity.
- Wolf_presence: absence (0, 1973 - 2003) or presence (1, 2004 - 2024). Wolves re-established with one territory completely covering Grimsö Wildlife Research Area in winter 2003-2004.
- Lynx_presence: absence (0, 1973 - 1995) or presence (1, 1996 - 2024). Lynx re-establishment in Grimsö Wildlife Research Area took place in winter 1995-1996 and the first lynx reproduction in the area was observed in spring 1996
- Lynx_only_presence: absence (0, 1973 – 1995 and 2004 - 2024) or presence (1, 1996 - 2003). The period with only lynx presence and no wolf presence.
- Sarcoptic_mange: absence (0) or presence (1). At Grimsö Wildlife Research Area (GWRA), sarcoptic mange was prevalent mainly between 1983 and 1989, a period associated with local fox population decline (Lindström et al. 1994, Ecology 75: 1042 – 1049). Sarcoptic mange did not disappear after 1989, but the prevalence was much lower.
- Vole_index_spring: number of vole individuals trapped per 100 trap nights. Vole density index estimates were based on biannual snap-trap surveys targeting bank voles and field voles conducted at GWRA since 1973 (https://data.fieldsites.se/portal/). One thousand traps distributed over 20 sampling sites covering 1 hectare each in 10 groups of 5 traps, were set out every year for three nights in spring and fall at GWRA since 1973. The vole density index was expressed as number of catches/100 trap nights, and the same sites were used each year.
- Hare.index: proportion of plots with hare droppings. The presence of droppings of hare (mountain hare and European hare) and woodland grouse (capercaillie, black grouse; and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia)) were monitored in late April to mid-May in permanent 10 m2 plots which had been previously cleared in late autumn south-eastern quadrant). The plots (about 500 plots every year) were 10 × 1 m and spaced 100 m apart along north-south oriented transects. During 1997-2024 the monitoring covered the entire study area (https://data.fieldsites.se/portal/), with thirty-two squares (1 × 1 km) systematically distributed within the study area. Four circular 10 m2 plots (radius of 1.78 m) were monitored every 200 m along the perimeter of each square (resulting in about 2400 plots every year). For both periods (1977-1996 and 1997-2024), the density index was expressed as proportion of plots with hare and grouse droppings, respectively. We used a reduced data set (n = 48) when hare and grouse density indices were included in the models, as the hare and grouse monitoring started in 1977.
- Grouse.index: proportion of plots with grouse droppings The presence of droppings of hare (mountain hare and European hare) and woodland grouse (capercaillie, black grouse; and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia)) were monitored in late April to mid-May in permanent 10 m2 plots which had been previously cleared in late autumn south-eastern quadrant). The plots (about 500 plots every year) were 10 × 1 m and spaced 100 m apart along north-south oriented transects. During 1997-2024 the monitoring covered the entire study area (https://data.fieldsites.se/portal/), with thirty-two squares (1 × 1 km) systematically distributed within the study area. Four circular 10 m2 plots (radius of 1.78 m) were monitored every 200 m along the perimeter of each square (resulting in about 2400 plots every year). For both periods (1977-1996 and 1997-2024), the density index was expressed as proportion of plots with hare and grouse droppings, respectively. We used a reduced data set (n = 48) when hare and grouse density indices were included in the models, as the hare and grouse monitoring started in 1977.
Data file: Hare_grouse_SO_vs_other.csv
Monitoring method (early 1977-1996 and late 1997-2024) is completely confounded with the presence of lynx (1996-2024) and partly with presence of both lynx and wolves (2004-2024). Therefore, we cannot add monitoring method as a random factor in the analyses. Instead, we tested if the hare density index and grouse density index in the south-eastern quadrant was correlated with the other quadrants (south-west, north-east and north-west quadrants) and they were not significantly different
During 1997-2024 the monitoring covered the entire study area (https://data.fieldsites.se/portal/), with thirty-two squares (1 × 1 km) systematically distributed within the study area. Four circular 10 m2 plots (radius of 1.78 m) were monitored every 200 m along the perimeter of each square (resulting in about 2400 plots every year). The density index was expressed as proportion of plots with hare and grouse droppings, respectively.
Variables:
- Year: year from 1997-2024
- n.plot: total number of plots
- SO.n.plot: number of plots in the south-eastern quadrant
- SO.hare.prop: proportion of plots with hare droppings in the south-eastern quadrant
- SO.grouse.prop: proportion of plots with grouse droppings in the south-eastern quadrant
- other.n.plot: number of plots in the other quadrants
- other.hare.prop: proportion of plots with hare droppings in the other quadrants
- other.grouse.prop: proportion of plots with grouse droppings in the other quadrants
Data files are tab-delimited with a comma decimal
Code:
R script: Red_fox.R
Analyzing factors influencing red fox numbers, hare density index and grouse density index, using the data file “Red_fox_data.csv”
R script: Hare_grouse_SO_vs_other.R
Relationship between hare and grouse density index in the SE quadrant and the other quadrants, using the data file Hare_grouse_SO_vs_other.csv
