Species’ ranges are shifting rapidly with climate change, altering the composition of biological communities and interactions within and among species. Hybridization is among the species interactions that may change markedly with climate change, yet it is understudied relative to others. We used non-invasive genetic detections to build a Maximum Entropy species distribution model and investigate the factors that delimit the present and future ranges of American marten (Martes americana) and Pacific marten (Martes caurina) in a contact zone in the Northern Rockies. We found that climate change will decrease the suitable habitat predicted for both species, as well as the amount of overlap in predicted suitable habitat between the species. Interestingly, predicted suitable habitat for Pacific marten extended further north in the study region than our genetic detections for the species, suggesting that biotic factors, such as interactions with American marten, may affect the realized range of this species. Our results suggest that future work investigating the interactions among biotic and abiotic factors that influence hybrid zone dynamics is important for predicting the futures of these two species in this area under climate change.

Please refer to the associated publication for detailed methodological information.