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Urbanization's dual role in the exacerbation and mitigation of drought dynamics in China

Alsafadi, Karam1; Sun, Jiwei2; Ullah, Irfan3; Srivastava, Amit Kumar4; Ewert, Frank4; Larbi, Boufeniza Redouane2; Bi, Shuoben2; Yang, Shengchang1; Wang, Feifei1; Cao, Wenzhi1

Published Sep 22, 2025 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.zpc866tkp

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Abstract

Since the 1980s, China’s rapid urbanization has raised significant concerns about its potential impact on local drought conditions as it influences ecological, environmental, and meteorological systems, yet its specific effects on drought duration, severity, and intensity remain underexplored. This study examines the impact of urbanization on drought dynamics across mainland Chinese cities using seven decades (1951–2020) of historical weather station observations. Our analysis suggests that urbanization plays a dual role in both exacerbating and mitigating drought conditions. The findings reveal that 50–55% of urban weather observation stations exhibited exacerbation of drought (ED) dynamics, characterized by increases in drought duration and severity ranging from +15% to +40%. Conversely, 45–50% of them demonstrated drought mitigation (MD) effects, with reductions in these metrics ranging from -15% to -37%. These results highlight the complex and multifaceted ways in which urbanization influences drought, varying across different metrics and timescales, emphasizing the critical need for enhanced attention to urban drought preparedness, particularly as cities face ongoing urbanization, population growth, and the impacts of climate change. Integrating sustainable urban planning with effective water resource management strategies is essential to address the intricate challenges posed by urban-driven drought dynamics.