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Dryad

Joint evolution of the biogeography and phenology of seasonal migration

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Aug 26, 2025 version files 1.63 MB

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Abstract

In migratory species, the temporal phases of the annual cycle are linked to seasonally shifting geographic ranges. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal structure of the annual cycle in a phylogenetic comparative framework by developing a method to demarcate the pacing of annual cycle stages using eBird, a massive avian occurrence dataset, and applying it to migratory passerine birds breeding in North America. The analyses focus on 150 species of migratory passerine birds breeding in North America, filtered from a starting list of 206 species based on data quality. The analyses use eBird data averaged across the years 2002-2021 to calculate daily distributional centroids of the geographic range of each species. Next, the centroids are used to estimate demarcations of the annual cycle stages for downstream analyses. Our analyses reveal a striking negative correlation between the durations of the breeding versus nonbreeding stationary periods, indicating that a tradeoff between the lengths of the two stationary periods is the primary axis of variation in annual cycle pacing. Our results further show that the duration of annual occupancy in the breeding versus stationary nonbreeding ranges predicts the geographic separation of these seasonal ranges, demonstrating that the ratio of time spent on stationary breeding versus nonbreeding locations evolves in tandem with a species’ migration distance. By contrast, the amount of time during which species undergo seasonal migration—that is, the duration of the seasonal periods when species’ geographic ranges shift latitudinally—varies relatively little across species compared to the length of the stationary periods. Our study helps untangle the complexity of seasonal distributions and schedules to reveal integrated evolution of the biogeography of the migratory cycle, its pacing, and life history tradeoffs among species.