For tropical forest restoration to result in long‐term biodiversity gains, native trees must establish self‐sustaining populations in degraded sites. While many have asked how seedling recruitment varies between restoration treatments, the long‐term fate of these recruits remains unknown. We address this research gap by tracking natural recruits of 27 species during the first 7 years of a tropical forest restoration experiment that included both planted and naturally regenerating plots. We used an individual‐based model to estimate the probability that a seedling achieves reproductive maturity after several years of growth and survival. We found an advantage for recruits in naturally regenerating plots, with up to 40% increased probability of reproduction in this treatment, relative to planted plots. The demographic advantage of natural regeneration was highest for mid‐successional species, with relatively minor differences between treatments for early‐successional species. Our research demonstrates the consequences of restoration decision making across the life cycle of tropical tree species.