This spatial data identifies connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. Present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes were combined into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, were identified as the areas where the Omniscape model indicated more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. The model was run for two different projections of future climate (CNRM_CM5 and HADGEM2-ES). Climate linkages from both models were overlaid with a strategic present-day connectivity framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action.

This connectivity model is a structural, coarse filter approach that explicitly incorporates human modification as a factor that will limit movement for species moving in response to climate change as that has been shown to pose an additional threat to climate-driven movement. This approach also addresses the multiple scales at which suitable climates may drive species distributions by modeling connectivity between the broad shifts in coarsely-defined climate “space” along routes with finer-scale topoclimate diversity. Finally, it accounts for the longer timeframes and incremental movements necessary for multi-generational range shifts by incorporating the likelihood of climate-driven movement across microclimate stepping-stones.

This approach includes the following assumptions:

1. Species will move towards locations where the future climate is analogous to the present-day climate they are experiencing.
2. Species range shifts often require multi-generational movements over a longer temporal period, and therefore, routes that provide microclimate stepping stones with habitat suitable for all phases of a species’ life-cycle are needed.
3. Topoclimate diversity confers microclimate diversity and therefore is more likely to provide suitable climate options, facilitating dispersal for species tracking suitable climate.

Data are shared both as a Layer Package and as a TIF file.

Raster values and associated classes

0     – Limited regional connectivity potential / No Data

100 – Intact landscape (present-day Diffuse connectivity)

101 – Climate linkage (HADGEM2-ES) through an intact landscape (present-day Diffuse connectivity class)

102 – Climate linkage (CNRM_CM5) through an intact landscape (present-day Diffuse connectivity class)

103 – Climate linkage (both climate models) through an intact landscape (present-day Diffuse connectivity class)

200 – Multiple present-day linkage options (present-day Intensified connectivity class)

201 – Climate linkage (HADGEM2-ES) among multiple present-day linkage options (present-day Intensified connectivity class)

202 – Climate linkage (CNRM_CM5) among multiple present-day linkage options (present-day Intensified connectivity class)

203 – Climate linkage (both climate models) among multiple present-day linkage options (present-day Intensified connectivity class)

300 – Present-day linkage (present-day Channelized connectivity class)

301 – Climate linkage (HADGEM2-ES) within a present-day linkage (present-day Channelized connectivity class)

302 – Climate linkage (CNRM_CM5) within a present-day linkage (present-day Channelized connectivity class)

303 – Climate linkage (both climate models) within a present-day linkage (present-day Channelized connectivity class)