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Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change

Howard, Christine1; Mason, Thomas2; Stephen, Baillie3; Jennifer, Border3; Hewson, Chris3; Houston, Alasdair4; Pearce-Higgins, James3; Bauer, Silke2; Willis, Stephen1; Stephens, Philip1

Published Nov 14, 2023; Updated May 15, 2024 on Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wdbrv15tn

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Nov 14, 2023 version files 1.20 MB
May 15, 2024 version files 1.20 MB

Abstract

Many migratory species are declining due to global environmental change. Yet, their complex annual cycles make unravelling the impacts of potential drivers such as climate and land-use change on migrations a major challenge. Identifying where, when, and how threatening processes impact species’ migratory journeys and population dynamics is crucial for identifying effective conservation actions. Here, we describe how a new migration modelling framework – Spatially-explicit Adaptive Migration Models (SAMMs) – can simulate the optimal behavioural decisions required to migrate across open land- or seascapes varying in character over space and time, without requiring predefined behavioural rules. Models of adaptive behaviour have been used widely in theoretical ecology but have great untapped potential in real-world contexts. Applying adaptive behaviour models across open environments will allow users to explore flexibility in how migratory strategies respond to environmental change and the consequences of migrants not being able to adapt to change. We outline how SAMMs can be used to model migratory journeys through aerial, terrestrial, and aquatic environments, demonstrating their potential using a case study on the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) and comparing modelled to observed behaviours. SAMMs offer a tool to identify the key threats faced by migratory species and to predict how they will adapt to future migratory journeys in response to changing environmental conditions.