Aim: Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). 

Location: Sichuan Province, China.

Methods: We used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also compared the differences in distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. 

Results: Our ensemble SDMs exhibited good model performance in terms of both AUC (0.931) and TSS (0.747), and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution patterns for the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. 

Main conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies.